Miami @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Florida

Weather at kickoff82°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Miami

3-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

South Florida

2-1 · Power #91

final

Closing spread

MIA -15.5

✓ MIA W

Total

63.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 38–22 USF

✓ MIA (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -17.5

CloseMIA -15.5

Total65.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -17.5

2 → USF

CloseMIA -15.5

2 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open65.5

▼ 2

Close63.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -17.5 · closed MIA -15.5 · moved 2 toward USFmodel MIA -20

model MIA -20

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 42% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -17.5

CloseMIA -15.5

Total65.5 → 63.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like MIA as a 15.5-point road favorite at USF, the favorite won 5, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 50–15; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 5 similar games. 65 points went over 63.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14 against an average line of 16.2; 55.6 points a game (usually 54.1). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OU @ CIN 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-14	20–6	P	U57.5
Close	MISS @ WAKE 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	40–6	W	U65.5
Loose	OSU @ PSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-15.5	44–31	L	O60.5
Loose	WASH @ ARIZ 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-20	31–24	L	U67
Loose	SMU @ LT 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-11	39–37	L	O65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WW–	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
USF –W–	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; USF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OO–	2-0	100%	3-0
USF –U–	0-1	0%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 76 earlier overs in games with totals 59.5–67.5, 26% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
USF	6-4 60%	5-3 63%	4-4 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+9.9 →+19.8▲ 9.9#7

USF−4.4 →−0.8▲ 3.6#69

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIA

Longer bar = better

USF

Offense

◀ MIA better

#76

Defense

◀ MIA better

#58

+1.7 #12

Turnovers

Even

+2.3 #5

70 plays #30

Pace

USF faster ▶

77 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	53.0 #5	23.0 #80	MIA
Yards / play	8.66 #3	5.17 #68	MIA
PPA / play	+0.58 #3	+0.03 #59	MIA
Success rate	56% #9	33% #25	Even

When USF has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	USF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #26	8.7 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #97	3.56 #10	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #81	−0.29 #1	MIA
Success rate	40% #98	30% #8	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.7 #23	16.0 #10	26.7 #10	15.0 #3	11.3 #15	26.3 #1
USF allowed	7.0 #95	5.7 #46	12.7 #80	0.0 #1	10.3 #121	10.3 #55

USF scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	10.3 #25	11.3 #43	21.7 #25	12.7 #8	3.3 #112	16.0 #47
MIA allowed	2.0 #20	3.3 #25	5.3 #15	1.0 #7	2.3 #19	3.3 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.