South Florida @ Southern Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Southern Miss

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South Florida

1-1 · Power #91

▲ winner

Final

Southern Miss

1-1 · Power #132

final

Closing spread

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Total

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Model before kickoff

USF 32–24 USM

✓ USF (74%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USF –W	1-0	100%	1-0	—
USM LW	1-1	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: USF away; USM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USF –U	0-1	0%	1-1
USM UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USF	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
USM	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USF−4.4 →−2.0▲ 2.4#74

USM−10.1 →−13.2▼ 3.1#121

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

USF

Longer bar = better

USM

#102

Offense

Even

#105

#46

Defense

◀ USF better

#73

+2.5 #6

Turnovers

◀ USF better

−0.5 #101

76 plays #16

Pace

◀ USF faster

45 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USF has the ball

Advantage: USM defense

	USF off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #67	20.5 #72	Even
Yards / play	4.72 #115	5.09 #73	USM
PPA / play	−0.01 #110	+0.01 #70	USM
Success rate	35% #116	39% #77	USM

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	USM off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #119	22.5 #79	USF
Yards / play	5.44 #87	3.96 #24	USF
PPA / play	−0.05 #119	−0.01 #60	USF
Success rate	40% #94	31% #19	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.