App State @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at East Carolina

Weather at kickoff81°F14 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

App State

1-1 · Power #99

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

2-0 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

ECU -0.5

✓ APP W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 26–27 ECU

✗ ECU (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -2.5

CloseECU -0.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAPP -2.5

3 → ECU

CloseECU -0.5

3 pts toward East Carolina

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened APP -2.5 · closed ECU -0.5 · moved 3 toward ECUmodel ECU -1

model ECU -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 46%, covered 43% (65 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAPP -2.5

CloseECU -0.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as a 0.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 21–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.9 against an average line of 2.4; 46.9 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	VT vs PUR 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	17–24	L	U49
Close	RUTG vs MD 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	16–40	L	O53
Close	MEM vs BOIS 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	35–32	L	O59.5
Close	COLO vs MINN 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	0–30	L	U49
Loose	DUKE vs UVA 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2	38–17	W	P55
Loose	EMU vs CMU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread & total	-1	38–19	W	O53.5
Loose	NEV vs GASO 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	17–20	L	U56.5
Loose	CAL vs USC 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	24–14	W	U57.5
Loose	TROY vs WKU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-3.5	27–24	L	U57
Loose	MRSH vs CCU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar total	-2.5	13–24	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
ECU WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; ECU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP UO	1-1	50%	1-1
ECU UU	0-2	0%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ECU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

APP 1–0 ECU APP leads · 1 game since 2023 · APP has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	East Carolina 28 @ App State 43	APP -7.5	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−4.2▼ 3.5#86

ECU−7.2 →−5.3▲ 1.9#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

APP

Longer bar = better

ECU

#59

Offense

◀ APP better

#85

#131

Defense

ECU better ▶

#20

−1.0 #115

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−3.0 #134

69 plays #42

Pace

ECU faster ▶

82 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	APP off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #82	8.5 #20	ECU
Yards / play	6.25 #59	2.88 #4	ECU
PPA / play	+0.34 #30	−0.12 #29	Even
Success rate	44% #66	32% #28	ECU

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: ECU offense

	ECU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #70	38.0 #126	ECU
Yards / play	5.96 #70	7.65 #133	ECU
PPA / play	−0.02 #113	+0.51 #137	ECU
Success rate	41% #88	50% #126	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 46 FBS teams

APP scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	5.0	10.0	15.0	7.0	7.0	14.0
ECU allowed	1.5	3.5	5.0	3.5	0.0	3.5

ECU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.0	7.0	17.0	9.0	5.0	14.0
APP allowed	17.5	14.0	31.5	6.5	0.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.