East Carolina @ Liberty: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 6:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Liberty

Weather at kickoff70°F4 mphgusts 19Wet0.2 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

East Carolina

2-1 · Power #92

final

Final

Liberty

3-0 · Power #95

▲ winner

Closing spread

LIB -7.5

✓ LIB W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 21–30 LIB

✓ LIB (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -6.5

CloseLIB -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -6.5

1 → LIB

CloseLIB -7.5

1 pt toward Liberty

Total

Open52.5

▲ 2

Close54.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -6.5 · closed LIB -7.5 · moved 1 toward LIBmodel LIB -13

model LIB -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (70 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (36 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLIB -6.5

CloseLIB -7.5

Total52.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 7.5-point home favorite against ECU, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: LIB won 35–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 8.8; 64.4 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs BYU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	38–27	W	O54.5
Close	WAKE vs VAN 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	36–20	W	U56.5
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-10.5	49–35	W	O58
Close	BYU vs BSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-6	17–26	L	U58
Close	TCU vs BYU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-5	44–11	W	O52.5
Close	TENN vs SC 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	45–20	W	O56.5
Close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Close	TOL vs EMU 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-9.25	49–52	L	O54.5
Close	APP vs MRSH 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	31–30	L	O59.25
Close	UNC vs VT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	41–10	W	U57.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-0
LIB LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: ECU away, as underdog; LIB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUU	0-3	0%	2-1
LIB OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 220 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
LIB	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−6.2▲ 1.0#91

LIB+3.4 →+3.0▼ 0.4#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ECU

Longer bar = better

LIB

#91

Offense

LIB better ▶

#43

#30

Defense

◀ ECU better

#47

−1.7 #128

Turnovers

LIB better ▶

+0.3 #55

74 plays #15

Pace

◀ ECU faster

67 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	ECU off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #85	19.3 #55	LIB
Yards / play	5.86 #82	4.95 #61	LIB
PPA / play	−0.01 #115	−0.11 #24	LIB
Success rate	42% #81	36% #47	LIB

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #51	12.7 #29	ECU
Yards / play	7.03 #25	4.08 #20	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #49	−0.05 #36	Even
Success rate	46% #47	35% #36	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	12.0 #9	4.7 #106	16.7 #57	6.0 #75	4.3 #100	10.3 #94
LIB allowed	5.3 #82	4.7 #33	10.0 #55	4.7 #54	4.7 #54	9.3 #48

LIB scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	5.7 #75	7.7 #79	13.3 #82	5.7 #79	14.0 #2	19.7 #21
ECU allowed	1.0 #9	7.0 #68	8.0 #36	4.7 #54	0.0 #1	4.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.