Liberty @ App State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at App State

Liberty

4-0 · Power #95

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

App State

2-2 · Power #99

projected

LIB 43%

57% APP

Spread

—

Total

—

model 59

Model line

APP -2.5

APP 57% to win

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	—
APP LLW–	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: LIB away; APP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB OUUO	2-2	50%	4-0
APP UOU–	1-2	33%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	9-1 90%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
APP	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Liberty

No more games this season.

App State

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

LIB 1–0 APP (1 tied) LIB leads · 2 games since 2014

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB+3.4 →+1.5▼ 1.9#63

APP−0.7 →−7.3▼ 6.6#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LIB

Longer bar = better

APP

#39

Offense

◀ LIB better

#92

#41

Defense

◀ LIB better

#131

+0.3 #68

Turnovers

◀ LIB better

−1.0 #116

70 plays #35

Pace

Even

72 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Advantage: LIB offense

	LIB off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #44	35.8 #123	LIB
Yards / play	6.58 #34	7.03 #131	LIB
PPA / play	+0.24 #39	+0.39 #136	LIB
Success rate	47% #40	52% #132	LIB

When APP has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	APP off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #106	20.5 #53	LIB
Yards / play	6.07 #69	4.93 #48	LIB
PPA / play	+0.11 #90	−0.09 #16	LIB
Success rate	40% #104	37% #45	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	4.3 #95	7.5 #86	11.8 #97	7.8 #50	14.0 #3	21.8 #9
APP allowed	16.3 #133	10.5 #112	26.8 #133	6.5 #83	2.5 #18	9.0 #44

APP scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	2.5 #121	10.3 #50	12.8 #91	5.3 #90	5.3 #95	10.5 #100
LIB allowed	7.5 #106	4.3 #27	11.8 #71	5.3 #63	3.5 #38	8.8 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.