North Carolina @ Duke: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Duke · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F8 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

3-1 · Power #64

final

Final

Duke

4-0 · Power #60

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNC -1.5

✓ DUKE W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 27–26 DUKE

✗ UNC (53%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3

CloseUNC -1.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDUKE -3

4.5 → UNC

CloseUNC -1.5

4.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open55.5

▼ 1

Close54.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DUKE -3 · closed UNC -1.5 · moved 4.5 toward UNCmodel DUKE -1

model DUKE -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 47% (51 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDUKE -3

CloseUNC -1.5

Total55.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 1.5-point road favorite at DUKE, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: DUKE won 21–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 54.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.3; 65.7 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	APP @ MRSH 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & rest	-2	21–28	L	O47.5
Close	AFA @ NEV 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	41–39	W	O54.25
Close	UTSA @ UAB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	44–38	W	O53.25
Close	TENN @ UK 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-1	45–42	W	O57.5
Close	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Close	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-1	37–44	L	O61.5
Close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Close	PSU @ MSU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-4.5	27–30	L	O51.5
Close	TULN @ MEM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	31–21	W	U55
Close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1	25–24	P	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC WLLL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-3
DUKE LWLW	2-2	50%	0-2	1-0

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; DUKE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1
DUKE UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
DUKE	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNC 64–38 DUKE (4 tied) UNC leads · 106 games since 1922 · UNC has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Duke 45 @ North Carolina 47	UNC -10	DUKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+7.2 →+3.1▼ 4.1#55

DUKE+4.0 →+2.0▼ 2.0#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UNC

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#50

Offense

◀ UNC better

#94

#73

Defense

DUKE better ▶

#13

−0.8 #108

Turnovers

DUKE better ▶

+0.8 #44

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ UNC faster

69 plays #47

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	UNC off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #24	15.3 #28	Even
Yards / play	6.59 #33	3.76 #8	DUKE
PPA / play	+0.12 #84	−0.17 #5	DUKE
Success rate	44% #60	32% #10	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	DUKE off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #67	29.3 #100	DUKE
Yards / play	5.24 #105	5.66 #84	UNC
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	+0.08 #71	UNC
Success rate	40% #103	36% #36	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.0 #53	9.5 #59	16.5 #64	8.3 #37	13.3 #6	21.5 #12
DUKE allowed	3.3 #34	3.5 #23	6.8 #19	5.3 #63	1.5 #6	6.8 #23

DUKE scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	11.3 #19	6.0 #104	17.3 #51	3.8 #111	6.5 #76	10.3 #102
UNC allowed	8.8 #115	12.0 #122	20.8 #123	3.5 #31	5.0 #59	8.5 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.