James Madison @ North Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at North Carolina

Weather at kickoff79°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

2-0 · Power #59

▲ winner

Final

North Carolina

3-0 · Power #64

final

Closing spread

UNC -11.5

✓ JMU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 120 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 20–30 UNC

✗ UNC (77%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -10.5

CloseUNC -11.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -10.5

1 → UNC

CloseUNC -11.5

1 pt toward North Carolina

Total

Open47.5

▲ 1

Close48.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -10.5 · closed UNC -11.5 · moved 1 toward UNCmodel UNC -5.5

model UNC -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 41% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -10.5

CloseUNC -11.5

Total47.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as an 11.5-point home favorite against JMU, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: JMU won 70–50 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 120 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 10; 55 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NEB vs NU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-11.25	56–7	W	O51.5
Loose	UNC vs VT 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	41–10	W	U57.25
Loose	UNC vs DUKE 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-10	47–45	L	O53
Loose	OKST vs TLSA 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar total & situation	-11.5	28–23	L	P51
Loose	ISU vs OKST 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar total	-7	24–21	L	U47
Loose	SYR vs UVA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	22–20	L	U53.75
Loose	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & total	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Loose	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Loose	AUB vs MIZ 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-7.5	17–14	L	U51
Loose	BOIS vs BYU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	28–31	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU –L	0-1	0%	—	—
UNC WLL	1-2	33%	0-2	1-2

Venue/role: JMU away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU –U	0-1	0%	2-0
UNC UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q2. Of 209 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
UNC	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+2.2 →+2.9▲ 0.7#59

UNC+7.2 →+5.7▼ 1.5#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JMU

Longer bar = better

UNC

#92

Offense

UNC better ▶

#61

#12

Defense

◀ JMU better

#37

+1.5 #17

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

+0.3 #61

59 plays #123

Pace

UNC faster ▶

68 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	JMU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #107	15.7 #42	UNC
Yards / play	5.97 #77	4.50 #37	UNC
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	−0.04 #41	UNC
Success rate	42% #84	33% #27	UNC

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	UNC off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #47	6.5 #7	JMU
Yards / play	6.12 #64	4.21 #25	JMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #73	−0.18 #9	JMU
Success rate	45% #58	28% #6	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	1.5	3.0	4.5	8.5	8.5	17.0
UNC allowed	3.3 #38	6.7 #52	10.0 #47	2.3 #18	3.3 #29	5.7 #20

UNC scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	4.7 #71	10.3 #40	15.0 #57	5.3 #73	13.7 #6	19.0 #19
JMU allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.