Marshall @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Ohio State

Weather at kickoff82°F4 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Marshall

1-1 · Power #69

final

Final

Ohio State

2-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -38.5

✓ MRSH W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

MRSH 6–44 OSU

✓ OSU (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -39.5

CloseOSU -38.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -39.5

1 → MRSH

CloseOSU -38.5

1 pt toward Marshall

Total

Open51.5

▲ 4

Close55.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -39.5 · closed OSU -38.5 · moved 1 toward MRSHmodel OSU -35

model OSU -35

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 36.5–40.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 61% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -39.5

CloseOSU -38.5

Total51.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like OSU as a 38.5-point home favorite against MRSH, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 49–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 63 points went over 55.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

4 of 4100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 60%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 36.8 against an average line of 38.4; 50.3 points a game (usually 56.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MICH vs BGSU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-40.75	31–6	L	U53.5
Loose	MIZ vs BUFF 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & season form	-34.5	38–0	W	U52
Loose	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & spread	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-41	49–21	L	O56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MRSH WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
OSU LW	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MRSH away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MRSH UU	0-2	0%	1-1
OSU OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Went over in Q3. Of 210 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MRSH	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
OSU	8-2 80%	5-4-1 56%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MRSH−5.5 →−4.8▲ 0.7#87

OSU+21.3 →+24.6▲ 3.3#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MRSH

Longer bar = better

OSU

#77

Offense

OSU better ▶

#42

Defense

OSU better ▶

0.0 #80

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+1.5 #16

65 plays #76

Pace

OSU faster ▶

68 plays #46

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MRSH has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MRSH off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #75	3.0 #2	OSU
Yards / play	6.36 #50	2.46 #1	OSU
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	−0.21 #5	OSU
Success rate	40% #97	31% #18	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	54.0 #4	17.0 #49	OSU
Yards / play	7.99 #7	3.88 #16	Even
PPA / play	+0.60 #2	0.00 #51	OSU
Success rate	60% #6	36% #51	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 111 FBS teams

MRSH scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	3.5	8.5	12.0	7.0	10.5	17.5
OSU allowed	1.5	0.0	1.5	1.5	0.0	1.5

OSU scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	14.0	12.0	26.0	17.5	10.5	28.0
MRSH allowed	3.5	1.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.