USC @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

USC

2-0 · Power #16

final

Final

Michigan

2-1 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -4.5

✓ MICH W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

USC 26–23 MICH

✗ USC (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -6.5

2 → MICH

CloseUSC -4.5

2 pts toward Michigan

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -6.5 · closed USC -4.5 · moved 2 toward MICHmodel MICH -2.5

model MICH -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 36% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -6.5

CloseUSC -4.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 4.5-point road favorite at MICH, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MICH won 27–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 4.4; 43.8 points a game (usually 52.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	CLEM @ ND 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Loose	MSU @ IU 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	20–15	W	U48.5
Loose	LSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8	21–17	L	U44.5
Loose	CIN @ ND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest	-2	24–13	W	U50
Loose	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-6	20–28	L	O45
Loose	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-1	10–9	P	U45
Loose	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-7	21–38	L	O45
Loose	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Loose	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar spread	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Loose	TA&M @ FLA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-3.5	33–20	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USC WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
MICH –L–	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: USC away, as favorite; MICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USC UU	0-2	0%	2-0
MICH –O–	1-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 140 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-4 56%
MICH	9-1 90%	5-3 63%	5-3 63%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USC+10.9 →+16.4▲ 5.5#11

MICH+21.1 →+14.2▼ 6.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

USC

Longer bar = better

MICH

#18

Offense

◀ USC better

#89

#56

Defense

Even

#51

+0.5 #45

Turnovers

◀ USC better

−1.3 #125

69 plays #36

Pace

◀ USC faster

60 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #27	19.7 #57	USC
Yards / play	7.18 #24	4.68 #47	USC
PPA / play	+0.38 #18	+0.04 #66	USC
Success rate	61% #4	34% #35	USC

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: USC defense

	MICH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #102	10.0 #18	USC
Yards / play	5.52 #96	5.36 #77	Even
PPA / play	+0.04 #104	0.00 #50	USC
Success rate	46% #53	40% #80	MICH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

USC scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	5.0	13.5	18.5	5.0	14.0	19.0
MICH allowed	2.3 #24	7.7 #73	10.0 #51	2.3 #20	7.3 #88	9.7 #50

MICH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	4.7 #78	6.7 #83	11.3 #86	2.0 #115	10.0 #19	12.0 #71
USC allowed	0.0	5.0	5.0	3.5	1.5	5.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.