Utah State @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at USC

Weather at kickoff84°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

1-0 · Power #106

final

Final

USC

1-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -30.5

✓ USC W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

USU 19–48 USC

✓ USC (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -27

CloseUSC -30.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -27

3.5 → USC

CloseUSC -30.5

3.5 pts toward USC

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Close62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -27 · closed USC -30.5 · moved 3.5 toward USCmodel USC -25

model USC -25

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSC -27

CloseUSC -30.5

Total61.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like USC as a 30.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 48–0; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 6 similar games. 48 points stayed under 62.5, as in 1 of 6.

Favorite won

6 of 6100%

Normal range · usually 97%

Favorite covered

5 of 683%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 683%

Normal range · usually 57%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 44.8 against an average line of 29.6; 65.2 points a game (usually 56.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & total	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Loose	FSU vs USM 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-31	66–13	W	O54
Loose	OSU vs WKU 2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-29.5	63–10	W	O64.75
Loose	TENN vs USA 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-28.25	60–14	W	O61.5
Loose	PSU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-28	46–10	W	O55
Loose	LSU vs ARMY 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-33	62–0	W	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU –	0-0	—	—	—
USC W	1-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU –	0-0	—	1-0
USC U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 45% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	6-2-1 75%
USC	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.9 →−6.8▲ 0.1#97

USC+10.9 →+13.2▲ 2.3#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

USU

Longer bar = better

USC

#29

Offense

◀ USU better

#44

#65

Defense

◀ USU better

#97

−2.0 #130

Turnovers

USC better ▶

+1.0 #27

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ USU faster

60 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: USU offense

	USU off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	36.0 #47	20.0 #71	USU
Yards / play	9.64 #4	6.58 #120	USU
PPA / play	+0.38 #27	+0.18 #103	USU
Success rate	50% #39	42% #93	USU

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #87	14.0 #45	USU
Yards / play	7.45 #27	4.89 #67	USC
PPA / play	+0.29 #44	+0.08 #86	USC
Success rate	55% #17	36% #60	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.