Akron @ Rutgers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Rutgers

Weather at kickoff75°F9 mphgusts 21Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Akron

0-1 · Power #124

final

Final

Rutgers

1-0 · Power #51

▲ winner

Closing spread

RUTG -24.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 11–36 RUTG

✓ RUTG (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -24

CloseRUTG -24.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenRUTG -24

0.5 → RUTG

CloseRUTG -24.5

0.5 pts toward Rutgers

Total

Open41.5

no move

Close41.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened RUTG -24 · closed RUTG -24.5 · moved 0.5 toward RUTGmodel RUTG -24.5 matches the line

model RUTG -24.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 22.5–26.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 40% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenRUTG -24

CloseRUTG -24.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like RUTG as a 24.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: RUTG won 49–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 6 similar games. 66 points went over 41.5, as in 3 of 6.

Favorite won

6 of 6100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 650%

Normal range · usually 54%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24.8 against an average line of 25.2; 49.2 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ vs MTSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-21	23–19	L	U47.5
Loose	MINN vs COLO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	49–7	W	O47.5
Loose	FRES vs NEV 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & rest	-24.5	27–9	L	U51.5
Loose	IOWA vs USU 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & total	-23.75	24–14	L	U43.5
Loose	UK vs BALL 2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-26	44–14	W	O48.75
Loose	TOL vs MASS 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	55–10	W	O49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
RUTG L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; RUTG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR O	1-0	100%	0-1
RUTG U	0-1	0%	1-0

Went over in Q3. Of 83 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	1-9 10%	5-4-1 56%	5-4 56%
RUTG	5-5 50%	4-4-1 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.9 →−15.5▼ 1.6#128

RUTG+2.4 →+4.6▲ 2.2#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

AKR

Longer bar = better

RUTG

#125

Offense

RUTG better ▶

#50

#123

Defense

RUTG better ▶

#49

−3.0 #130

Turnovers

RUTG better ▶

+1.0 #51

64 plays #84

Pace

RUTG faster ▶

70 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: RUTG defense

	AKR off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	6.0 #130	7.0 #40	RUTG
Yards / play	2.77 #133	4.28 #56	RUTG
PPA / play	−0.25 #126	−0.17 #44	RUTG
Success rate	36% #111	34% #54	RUTG

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: RUTG offense

	RUTG off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #40	52.0 #129	RUTG
Yards / play	6.80 #54	6.31 #109	RUTG
PPA / play	+0.26 #61	+0.39 #127	RUTG
Success rate	52% #43	54% #127	RUTG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.