Massachusetts @ Toledo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Toledo

Weather at kickoff63°F13 mphgusts 26DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Massachusetts

0-1 · Power #125

final

Final

Toledo

1-0 · Power #88

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -17.5

✓ MASS W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 18–35 TOL

✓ TOL (89%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -19.5

CloseTOL -17.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -19.5

2 → MASS

CloseTOL -17.5

2 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -19.5 · closed TOL -17.5 · moved 2 toward MASSmodel TOL -17

model TOL -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 50% (42 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -19.5

CloseTOL -17.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 17.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TOL won 38–23; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20 against an average line of 17.3; 60.8 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & total	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	TOL vs NIU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-13	35–33	L	O48
Close	USA vs ULM 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-17	41–34	L	O51
Close	UTSA vs RICE 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-17	45–0	W	U53
Close	TOL vs CSU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-14.5	6–22	L	U59
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & team ratings	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-20	43–10	W	O48
Close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & rest	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Loose	PITT vs WMU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-14.5	41–44	L	O58.5
Loose	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-20.5	69–10	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS L	0-1	0%	—	—
TOL W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; TOL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS U	0-1	0%	0-1
TOL O	1-0	100%	1-0

Went over in Q4. Of 204 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
TOL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MASS 0–1 TOL TOL leads · 1 game since 2023 · TOL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Toledo 41 @ Massachusetts 24	TOL -19.5	MASS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−14.3▼ 2.2#127

TOL−0.4 →−1.4▼ 1.0#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

MASS

Longer bar = better

TOL

#97

Offense

TOL better ▶

#35

#95

Defense

TOL better ▶

#75

0.0 #60

Turnovers

TOL better ▶

+3.0 #11

71 plays #38

Pace

◀ MASS faster

69 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	MASS off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #114	10.0 #45	TOL
Yards / play	4.63 #106	4.90 #71	TOL
PPA / play	+0.06 #95	+0.08 #82	Even
Success rate	44% #74	43% #102	MASS

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #29	28.0 #99	TOL
Yards / play	6.46 #59	5.95 #100	TOL
PPA / play	+0.40 #34	+0.16 #93	TOL
Success rate	58% #16	42% #88	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.