Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Massachusetts
Closing spread
MASS -2.5
✓ EMU W
Total
50.5
▼ Under · 42 pts
Model before kickoff
EMU 25–28 MASS
✗ MASS (58%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenEMU -1
CloseMASS -2.5
Total49.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenEMU -1
3.5 → MASS
CloseMASS -2.5
3.5 pts toward Massachusetts
Total
Open49.5
▲ 1
Close50.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened EMU -1 · closed MASS -2.5 · moved 3.5 toward MASSmodel MASS -4
model MASS -4
Opened 49.5 · closed 50.5 · moved 1 upmodel 53
model 53
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (103 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenEMU -1
CloseMASS -2.5
Total49.5 → 50.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MASS as a 2.5-point home favorite against EMU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: EMU won 28–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 50.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 57%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.1 against an average line of 2.4; 45.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  ULM vs  TXST2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 31–30 | L | O52.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-2.5 | 18–31 | L | U50.75 |
| Very close |  UNT vs  UTEP2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & spread |
-0.5 | 20–17 | W | U55 |
| Very close |  OHIO vs  SYR2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-2 | 9–29 | L | U55.5 |
| Very close |  USA vs  USM2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-2 | 31–7 | W | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation |
-3.5 | 31–34 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |  EMU vs  CMU2022 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-1 | 38–19 | W | O53.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar total & situation |
-2.75 | 17–27 | L | U52.25 |
| Close |  BGSU vs  WMU2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-5 | 13–9 | L | U48 |
| Close |  FIU vs TXST2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-2 | 17–23 | L | U55.5 |
CONN
UNM
NMSUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Massachusetts ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Massachusetts
3.5 pts (EMU -1 → MASS -2.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Eastern Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EMU | 4-6 40% | 5-4-1 56% | 6-3 67% |
| MASS | 2-8 20% | 4-6 40% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
EMU 1–0 MASS
EMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · EMU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 2023 | Massachusetts 17 @ Eastern Michigan 19 | EMU -9 | MASS W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MASS +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
76° · 7 mph
gusts 21 mph · at kickoff
Rest
EMU1st game
MASS1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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