Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Maryland
Closing spread
MD -18.5
✓ MD W
Total
44.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
CONN 16–36 MD
✓ MD (92%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMD -21
CloseMD -18.5
Total47.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMD -21
2.5 → CONN
CloseMD -18.5
2.5 pts toward UConn
Total
Open47.5
▼ 3
Close44.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MD -21 · closed MD -18.5 · moved 2.5 toward CONNmodel MD -22.5
model MD -22.5
Opened 47.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 3 downmodel 52
model 52
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 51% (63 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMD -21
CloseMD -18.5
Total47.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MD as an 18.5-point home favorite against CONN, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.
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This game: MD won 50–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 44.5, as in 8 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 89%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
8 of 1080%
Above normal · usually 46%
Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 18.9; 51.5 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar total & situation |
-16.5 | 38–3 | W | U45.25 |
| Very close |  ARK vs  RICE2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-19.5 | 38–17 | W | O50 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & situation |
-14.25 | 24–31 | L | O44.25 |
| Very close |  CIN vs  NAVY2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-18.5 | 20–10 | L | U43.5 |
| Close |  CCU vs  TROY2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-17 | 35–28 | L | O50 |
| Close |  ISU vs  OHIO2022 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation |
-20 | 43–10 | W | O48 |
| Close |  BYU vs  WYO2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-21.25 | 38–24 | L | O49.75 |
| Close |  HOU vs NAVY2021 · Week 4 · close · similar total & situation |
-20 | 28–20 | L | O47 |
| Close |  ORST vs  COLO2022 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total |
-23 | 42–9 | W | O47.5 |
| Close |  MINN vs  M-OH2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-19 | 31–26 | L | O55 |
MIAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight UConn ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward UConn
2.5 pts (MD -21 → MD -18.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
47.5 → 44.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
UConn have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 131 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CONN | 3-7 30% | 5-5 50% | 4-5 44% |
| MD | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% | 6-3 67% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MD +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
77° · 6 mph
gusts 12 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
CONN1st game
MD1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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