Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at West Virginia
Closing spread
PSU -7.5
✓ PSU W
Total
48.5
▼ Under · 46 pts
Model before kickoff
PSU 31–22 WVU
✓ PSU (73%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPSU -10.5
ClosePSU -7.5
Total51.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPSU -10.5
3 → WVU
ClosePSU -7.5
3 pts toward West Virginia
Total
Open51.5
▼ 3
Close48.5
Down 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PSU -10.5 · closed PSU -7.5 · moved 3 toward WVUmodel PSU -13
model PSU -13
Opened 51.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 3 downmodel 53
model 53
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 59% (54 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenPSU -10.5
ClosePSU -7.5
Total51.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
PSU as a 7.5-point road favorite at WVU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: PSU won 34–12; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 6.9; 59.6 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  ND @  FSU2021 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-7.5 | 41–38 | L | O53.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread |
-6.5 | 24–15 | W | U48.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread |
-7.5 | 52–40 | W | O51 |
| Close |  AUB @  SC2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 17–21 | L | U45.25 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-8.5 | 51–15 | W | O50.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total |
-7.5 | 26–16 | W | U44.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 21–38 | L | O45 |
| Close |  NEB @  ILL2021 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 22–30 | L | U52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation |
-7 | 45–24 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 33–27 | W | O50.5 |
FLA
ORST
CAL
MD
TEX
ISU
LOU
PITT
NCSU
TENN
UKHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight West Virginia ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward West Virginia
3 pts (PSU -10.5 → PSU -7.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 3
51.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Penn State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
 WVU | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
PSU 1–0 WVU
PSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · PSU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2 2023 | West Virginia 15 @ Penn State 38 | PSU -20.5 | PSU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WVU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 3 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
PSU1st game
WVU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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