Fri, Aug 30, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Wisconsin
Closing spread
WIS -24.5
✓ WMU W
Total
56.5
▼ Under · 42 pts
Model before kickoff
WMU 16–39 WIS
✓ WIS (96%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWIS -24.5
CloseWIS -24.5
Total56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenWIS -24.5
no move
CloseWIS -24.5
No change since the open
Total
Open56.5
no move
Close56.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened WIS -24.5 · unchangedmodel WIS -20.5
model WIS -20.5
Opened 56.5 · unchangedmodel 55
model 55
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 22.5–26.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 36% (45 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenWIS -24.5
CloseWIS -24.5
Total56.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
WIS as a 24.5-point home favorite against WMU, the favorite won 8, covered 1, and 8 went over the total.
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This game: WIS won 28–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 56.5, as in 2 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 91%
Favorite covered
1 of 1010%
Below normal · usually 48%
Went over
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 55%
Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 24.1; 60.1 points a game (usually 55.3). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  FLA vs  USF2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-23.5 | 31–28 | L | O58 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-24.5 | 38–20 | L | O50 |
| Very close |  UK vs  NIU2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-26.75 | 31–23 | L | O53 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-26.75 | 31–42 | L | O58.75 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-21 | 41–28 | L | O55 |
| Very close |  BYU vs  USU2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation |
-26 | 38–26 | L | O60 |
| Very close |  WASH vs  KENT2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-23.5 | 45–20 | W | O61.5 |
| Very close |  ASU vs  EMU2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & total |
-20.5 | 21–30 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close | BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-23.5 | 35–27 | L | O54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-24.5 | 24–22 | L | U52.75 |
MD
CLT
BAY
TXST
MSST
TULN
TLSAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Western Michigan have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 22. 51% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 WMU | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
| WIS | 5-5 50% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-5 44% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
WIS +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
69° · 5 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
WMU1st game
WIS1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Wisconsinvs SDAK →
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