Thu, Aug 29, 2024, 9:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Minnesota
Closing spread
UNC -1.5
✓ UNC W
Total
52.5
▼ Under · 36 pts
Model before kickoff
UNC 30–28 MINN
✓ UNC (57%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMINN -2.5
CloseUNC -1.5
Total50.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMINN -2.5
4 → UNC
CloseUNC -1.5
4 pts toward North Carolina
Total
Open50.5
▲ 2
Close52.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MINN -2.5 · closed UNC -1.5 · moved 4 toward UNCmodel UNC -6
model UNC -6
Opened 50.5 · closed 52.5 · moved 2 upmodel 57.5
model 57.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 43% (70 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMINN -2.5
CloseUNC -1.5
Total50.5 → 52.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
UNC as a 1.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: UNC won 19–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 52.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 56%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.6 against an average line of 2.8; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.4). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  BYU @  WSU2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation |
-3.5 | 21–19 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |  SC @  ECU2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread |
-3 | 20–17 | P | U56.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-2.5 | 39–14 | W | U59.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-3 | 18–16 | L | U58.5 |
| Close |  FSU @  LOU2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total |
-2.5 | 35–31 | W | O57 |
| Close |  NEB @  MINN2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total |
-4.5 | 23–30 | L | O48.5 |
| Close |  UTSA @  ARMY2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 41–38 | W | O54 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-1 | 35–20 | W | U56.5 |
| Close |  ORST @  CAL2021 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings |
-2 | 25–39 | L | O56.5 |
| Close | ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings |
-4 | 24–31 | L | U59 |
TTU
BAY
UCF
BOIS
SYR
PURHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight North Carolina ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward North Carolina
4 pts (MINN -2.5 → UNC -1.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 2
50.5 → 52.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
North Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 53% of games with totals 48.5–56.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNC | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-3-1 63% |
| MINN | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
UNC 1–0 MINN
UNC leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNC has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 2023 | Minnesota 13 @ North Carolina 31 | UNC -7 | UNC W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MINN +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
71° · 7 mph
gusts 13 mph · 0.004 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
UNC1st game
MINN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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