Sat, Aug 24, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site · Conference game
Closing spread
FSU -10.5
✓ GT W
Total
54.5
▼ Under · 45 pts
Model before kickoff
FSU 33–22 GT
✗ FSU (78%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFSU -13
CloseFSU -10.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -13
2.5 → GT
CloseFSU -10.5
2.5 pts toward Georgia Tech
Total
Open54.5
no move
Close54.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -13 · closed FSU -10.5 · moved 2.5 toward GTmodel FSU -13
model FSU -13
Opened 54.5 · unchangedmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFSU -13
CloseFSU -10.5
Total54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
FSU as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against GT, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: GT won 24–21 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 77%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5 against an average line of 9; 55.6 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close | 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-10 | 7–34 | L | U58 |
| Close | 2021 · Postseason · close · similar total & team ratings |
-7 | 17–29 | L | U56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation |
-14 | 43–20 | W | O50 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 12 · close |
-11 | 32–14 | W | U47.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose |
-7.5 | 39–34 | L | O49.5 |
| Loose | 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total |
-6 | 28–31 | L | O54.25 |
| Loose |
2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread |
-8.5 | 49–36 | W | O64.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar total |
-6.5 | 34–22 | W | O54 |
| Loose | 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar spread |
-9 | 33–19 | W | U56 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 3 · loose |
-10 | 21–14 | L | U50.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Georgia Tech ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Georgia Tech
2.5 pts (FSU -13 → FSU -10.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Florida State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 4-5 44% | |
| 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 6-3 67% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
61° · 14 mph
gusts 29 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
FSU1st game
GT1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

