Mon, Sep 2, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Florida State · Conference game
Closing spread
FSU -16.5
✓ BC W
Total
51.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
BC 19–36 FSU
✗ FSU (89%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFSU -21.5
CloseFSU -16.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFSU -21.5
5 → BC
CloseFSU -16.5
5 pts toward Boston College
Total
Open51.5
no move
Close51.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FSU -21.5 · closed FSU -16.5 · moved 5 toward BCmodel FSU -20
model FSU -20
Opened 51.5 · unchangedmodel 54
model 54
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 44% (45 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenFSU -21.5
CloseFSU -16.5
Total51.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
FSU as a 16.5-point home favorite against BC, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: BC won 28–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 85%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.5 against an average line of 15.8; 49.1 points a game (usually 54). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  ND vs  TOL2021 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings |
-16.5 | 32–29 | L | O55.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation |
-15 | 42–13 | W | O50 |
| Close |  PUR vs  FAU2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread |
-16.25 | 28–26 | L | U57.25 |
| Close |  KSU vs  TULN2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest |
-13.5 | 10–17 | L | U49 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest |
-17 | 38–14 | W | O48 |
| Close |  NCST vs  LT2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest |
-17.75 | 34–27 | L | O56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation |
-14.5 | 51–13 | W | O47 |
| Close |  MINN vs  M-OH2021 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation |
-19 | 31–26 | L | O55 |
| Close |  CLEM vs  BC2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest |
-14.5 | 19–13 | L | U46.5 |
| Close |  PSU vs  RUTG2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest |
-14 | 28–0 | W | U45 |
TROY
DUKE
NU
UGA
UKHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Boston College ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Boston College
5 pts (FSU -21.5 → FSU -16.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Small sample warning
Boston College have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BC | 6-4 60% | 4-6 40% | 4-4-1 50% |
| FSU | 8-2 80% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
BC 0–1 FSU
FSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FSU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 2023 | Florida State 31 @ Boston College 29 | FSU -25.5 | BC W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
FSU +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
88° · 4 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
BC1st game
FSU9d
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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