Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Vanderbilt
Closing spread
VT -13.5
✓ VAN W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
VT 34–21 VAN
✗ VT (81%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenVT -13.5
CloseVT -13.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenVT -13.5
no move
CloseVT -13.5
No change since the open
Total
Open53.5
▼ 5
Close48.5
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VT -13.5 · unchangedmodel VT -8.5
model VT -8.5
Opened 53.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 5 downmodel 55.5
model 55.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenVT -13.5
CloseVT -13.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
VT as a 13.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: VAN won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 52%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 12.6; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total |
-12.5 | 21–20 | L | U51.75 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-10 | 42–7 | W | U50 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread |
-11.5 | 38–10 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings |
-13.5 | 38–21 | W | O54.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation |
-13.5 | 33–35 | L | O50.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings |
-16.5 | 14–17 | L | U47 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-11.5 | 42–20 | W | O55 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 5 · close |
-13.5 | 33–34 | L | O48.25 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-13 | 35–34 | L | O50.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings |
-10 | 34–13 | W | O46 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 5
53.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Virginia Tech have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 175 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 6-3 67% | |
| 0-10 0% | 2-8 20% | 6-3 67% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 1 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
VT1st game
VAN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

