Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Vanderbilt
Weather at kickoff85°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›
0-0 · Power #38
27
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #53
34
▲ winner
Closing spread
VT -13.5
✓ VAN W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 61 pts
Model before kickoff
VT 34–21 VAN
✗ VT (81%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenVT -13.5
CloseVT -13.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened VT -13.5 · unchangedmodel VT -8.5
Opened 53.5 · closed 48.5 · moved 5 downmodel 55.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenVT -13.5
CloseVT -13.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as a 13.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: VAN won 34–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 61 points went over 48.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 82%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 12.6; 54.1 points a game (usually 55.4). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
NCST @ ECU
2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar situation & total
-12.521–20 L U51.75
Very close
AFA @ UNLV
2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings
-1042–7 W U50
Close
AFA @ UNM
2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread
-11.538–10 W O45.5
Close
2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & team ratings
-13.538–21 W O54.5
Close
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar spread & situation
-13.533–35 L O50.5
Close
AFA @ WYO
2022 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings
-16.514–17 L U47
Close
JMU @ ARST
2022 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & spread
-11.542–20 W O55
Close
LOU @ BC
2022 · Week 5 · close
-13.533–34 L O48.25
Close
BUFF @ ODU
2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation
-1335–34 L O50.5
Close
PITT @ WMU
2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings
-1034–13 W O46
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Total moved down 5
53.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Virginia Tech have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
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Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
VAN +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
85° · 1 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
VT1st game
VAN1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week