Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · Neutral site
Closing spread
UGA -10.5
✓ UGA W
Total
49.5
▼ Under · 37 pts
Model before kickoff
CLEM 21–32 UGA
✓ UGA (78%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUGA -13.5
CloseUGA -10.5
Total47.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUGA -13.5
3 → CLEM
CloseUGA -10.5
3 pts toward Clemson
Total
Open47.5
▲ 2
Close49.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UGA -13.5 · closed UGA -10.5 · moved 3 toward CLEMmodel UGA -12.5
model UGA -12.5
Opened 47.5 · closed 49.5 · moved 2 upmodel 52
model 52
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUGA -13.5
CloseUGA -10.5
Total47.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
UGA as a 10.5-point neutral-site favorite against CLEM, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: UGA won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 77%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.3 against an average line of 10.2; 45.9 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-14 | 43–20 | W | O50 |
| Close | 2021 · Postseason · close · similar team ratings |
-13 | 27–6 | W | U57.5 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total |
-14 | 34–7 | W | U50.5 |
| Loose | 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar total |
-7.5 | 34–11 | W | U46 |
| Loose |
2023 · Postseason · loose · similar total & team ratings |
-4 | 3–14 | L | U51 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-16 | 49–3 | W | U54.5 |
| Loose | 2022 · Week 14 · loose |
-15.75 | 43–22 | W | O54 |
| Loose |
2023 · Postseason · loose |
-9.5 | 35–31 | L | O58.5 |
| Loose | 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation |
-4.5 | 10–20 | L | U47 |
| Loose |
2023 · Postseason · loose · similar total |
-3.5 | 28–19 | W | U48.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Clemson ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Clemson
3 pts (UGA -13.5 → UGA -10.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 2
47.5 → 49.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Clemson have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 55% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 4-5 44% | |
| 9-1 90% | 5-5 50% | 5-4 56% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
CLEM1st game
UGA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

