App State @ Clemson: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Clemson

Weather at kickoff75°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

App State

1-0 · Power #99

final

Final

Clemson

0-1 · Power #17

▲ winner

Closing spread

CLEM -13.5

✓ CLEM W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 86 pts

Model before kickoff

APP 19–33 CLEM

✓ CLEM (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -17

CloseCLEM -13.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -17

3.5 → APP

CloseCLEM -13.5

3.5 pts toward App State

Total

Open51.5

▲ 2

Close53.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -17 · closed CLEM -13.5 · moved 3.5 toward APPmodel CLEM -15

model CLEM -15

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 86%, covered 45% (50 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -17

CloseCLEM -13.5

Total51.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like CLEM as a 13.5-point home favorite against APP, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLEM won 66–20; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 86 points went over 53.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 81%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 12.7; 42 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIA vs APP 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	25–23	L	U54.5
Loose	FSU vs BC 2024 · Week 1 · loose · similar total & situation	-16.5	13–28	L	U51.5
Loose	USC vs SJSU 2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & spread	-14	30–7	W	U61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
APP L	0-1	0%	—	—
CLEM L	0-1	0%	—	—

Venue/role: APP away, as underdog; CLEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
APP U	0-1	0%	1-0
CLEM U	0-1	0%	0-1

Went over in Q2. Of 201 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
APP	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
CLEM	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

APP−0.7 →−0.4▲ 0.3#69

CLEM+12.9 →+10.7▼ 2.2#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

APP

Longer bar = better

CLEM

#34

Offense

◀ APP better

#132

#65

Defense

◀ APP better

#119

0.0 #72

Turnovers

◀ APP better

−1.0 #121

68 plays #50

Pace

◀ APP faster

52 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When APP has the ball

Advantage: APP offense

	APP off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #40	34.0 #120	APP
Yards / play	7.35 #28	7.45 #133	APP
PPA / play	+0.46 #14	+0.33 #126	APP
Success rate	46% #52	42% #95	APP

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: APP defense

	CLEM off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	3.0 #137	10.0 #26	APP
Yards / play	3.62 #134	5.08 #73	APP
PPA / play	−0.06 #120	+0.09 #89	APP
Success rate	28% #135	38% #73	APP

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.