Houston @ Oklahoma: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Oklahoma

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Houston

0-1 · Power #76

final

Final

Oklahoma

1-0 · Power #28

▲ winner

Closing spread

OU -27.5

✓ HOU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 28 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 11–40 OU

✓ OU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -27.5

CloseOU -27.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOU -27.5

no move

CloseOU -27.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OU -27.5 · unchangedmodel OU -32

model OU -32

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–29.5 since 2023: won 96%, covered 52% (48 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOU -27.5

CloseOU -27.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like OU as a 27.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: OU won 16–12; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 2 similar games. 28 points stayed under 48.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

2 of 2100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 59%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 32.5 against an average line of 27.8; 46.5 points a game (usually 56.6). When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs USM 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-27.5	30–7	L	U50.5
Loose	MINN vs COLO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-28	49–7	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU –	0-0	—	—	—
OU W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; OU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU –	0-0	—	0-1
OU U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 2. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
OU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU−3.5 →−6.7▼ 3.2#96

OU+17.8 →+19.7▲ 1.9#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

HOU

Longer bar = better

#128

Offense

OU better ▶

#67

#75

Defense

OU better ▶

#13

−1.0 #113

Turnovers

OU better ▶

+6.0 #1

64 plays #87

Pace

Even

65 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: OU defense

	HOU off	OU def	Edge
Points / game	7.0 #127	3.0 #19	OU
Yards / play	3.86 #120	3.23 #23	OU
PPA / play	−0.41 #133	−0.76 #1	OU
Success rate	22% #132	19% #9	OU

When OU has the ball

Even matchup

	OU off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	51.0 #24	27.0 #95	OU
Yards / play	5.82 #80	4.97 #74	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #59	−0.02 #68	Even
Success rate	38% #106	36% #61	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.