Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Cincinnati

Weather at kickoff64°F11 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Pittsburgh

1-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati

1-0 · Power #45

final

Closing spread

PITT -2.5

✓ CIN W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

PITT 27–26 CIN

✓ PITT (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

ClosePITT -2.5

Total59.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

5 → PITT

ClosePITT -2.5

5 pts toward Pittsburgh

Total

Open59.5

▲ 3

Close62.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · closed PITT -2.5 · moved 5 toward PITTmodel CIN -2

model CIN -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 45% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

ClosePITT -2.5

Total59.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like PITT as a 2.5-point road favorite at CIN, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: PITT won 28–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 3 similar games. 55 points stayed under 62.5, as in 0 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 3100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 9.7 against an average line of 2.2; 76.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UCF @ KU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	22–51	L	O64.5
Loose	PITT @ TENN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	41–34	W	O56
Loose	SMU @ HOU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-1	37–44	L	O61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
CIN L	0-1	0%	0-1	—

Venue/role: PITT away, as favorite; CIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT O	1-0	100%	1-0
CIN O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 47% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
CIN	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 0–1 CIN CIN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CIN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Cincinnati 27 @ Pittsburgh 21	PITT -6.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT−0.9 →+0.4▲ 1.3#63

CIN−1.7 →−0.3▲ 1.4#68

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

PITT

Longer bar = better

CIN

#40

Offense

CIN better ▶

#20

#55

Defense

◀ PITT better

#81

0.0 #77

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

−2.0 #123

81 plays #12

Pace

◀ PITT faster

63 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	55.0 #14	20.0 #79	PITT
Yards / play	7.00 #49	5.92 #99	PITT
PPA / play	+0.28 #60	−0.02 #70	Even
Success rate	53% #35	38% #74	PITT

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	38.0 #54	24.0 #88	CIN
Yards / play	10.44 #4	3.21 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.56 #14	−0.02 #67	CIN
Success rate	63% #7	32% #42	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.