Troy @ Memphis: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sat, Sep 7, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Memphis

Weather at kickoff74°F15 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Troy

0-1 · Power #97

final

Final

Memphis

1-0 · Power #56

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -18.5

✓ MEM W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

TROY 17–34 MEM

✓ MEM (88%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -17

CloseMEM -18.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -17

1.5 → MEM

CloseMEM -18.5

1.5 pts toward Memphis

Total

Open54.5

▲ 3

Close57.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -17 · closed MEM -18.5 · moved 1.5 toward MEMmodel MEM -9.5

model MEM -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–20.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 49% (68 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMEM -17

CloseMEM -18.5

Total54.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MEM as an 18.5-point home favorite against TROY, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 0 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MEM won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 55 points stayed under 57.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Below normal · usually 89%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 46%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 17.5; 31 points a game (usually 54.5). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WISC vs WSU 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	14–17	L	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY L	0-1	0%	—	—
MEM W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: TROY away, as underdog; MEM home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY O	1-0	100%	0-1
MEM U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-4 56%
MEM	8-2 80%	4-4-2 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TROY 0–2 MEM MEM leads · 2 games since 2024 · MEM has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 135 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY+2.8 →−2.4▼ 5.2#76

MEM+2.0 →+3.9▲ 1.9#42

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

TROY

Longer bar = better

MEM

#75

Offense

MEM better ▶

#44

#115

Defense

MEM better ▶

#13

0.0 #83

Turnovers

MEM better ▶

+3.0 #9

66 plays #74

Pace

◀ TROY faster

56 plays #122

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	TROY off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #91	0.0 #10	MEM
Yards / play	5.92 #76	3.14 #19	MEM
PPA / play	+0.32 #54	−0.72 #2	MEM
Success rate	43% #77	24% #19	MEM

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #51	28.0 #102	MEM
Yards / play	6.55 #57	7.15 #120	MEM
PPA / play	+0.47 #23	+0.29 #114	MEM
Success rate	51% #46	53% #123	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.