Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Troy
Closing spread
TROY -7.5
✓ NEV W
Total
44.5
▲ Over · 54 pts
Model before kickoff
NEV 17–28 TROY
✗ TROY (78%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTROY -14.5
CloseTROY -7.5
Total46.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTROY -14.5
7 → NEV
CloseTROY -7.5
7 pts toward Nevada
Total
Open46.5
▼ 2
Close44.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TROY -14.5 · closed TROY -7.5 · moved 7 toward NEVmodel TROY -23.5
model TROY -23.5
Opened 46.5 · closed 44.5 · moved 2 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (59 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTROY -14.5
CloseTROY -7.5
Total46.5 → 44.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 3 games most like 
TROY as a 7.5-point home favorite against NEV, the favorite won 2, covered 0, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: NEV won 28–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 3 similar games. 54 points went over 44.5, as in 3 of 3.
Favorite won
2 of 367%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
0 of 30%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
3 of 3100%
Normal range · usually 49%
Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.3 against an average line of 8.6; 54.3 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 3 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2023 · Week 3 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-12.25 | 28–24 | L | O46.75 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-6.5 | 24–21 | L | O41 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-7 | 29–37 | L | O41.75 |
MEM
NAVY
DUKE
WAKE
UTSA
ARMYHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Nevada ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Nevada
7 pts (TROY -14.5 → TROY -7.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
46.5 → 44.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Troy have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 135 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NEV | 2-8 20% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
| TROY | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 4-5 44% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TROY +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
91° · 2 mph
gusts 8 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NEV7d
TROY1st game
Even
Travel
NEV 1,962 mi
2 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
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