Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at South Alabama
Closing spread
USA -5.5
✓ UNT W
Total
60.5
▲ Over · 90 pts
Model before kickoff
UNT 29–35 USA
✗ USA (68%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUSA -7
CloseUSA -5.5
Total65.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUSA -7
1.5 → UNT
CloseUSA -5.5
1.5 pts toward North Texas
Total
Open65.5
▼ 5
Close60.5
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened USA -7 · closed USA -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward UNTmodel USA -10.5
model USA -10.5
Opened 65.5 · closed 60.5 · moved 5 downmodel 64
model 64
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 53% (47 games)ⓘ
Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenUSA -7
CloseUSA -5.5
Total65.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
USA as a 5.5-point home favorite against UNT, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: UNT won 52–38 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 90 points went over 60.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 5.8; 53.6 points a game (usually 53). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  HOU vs  KU2022 · Week 3 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 30–48 | L | O58 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total |
-4.5 | 24–27 | L | U59 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 56–14 | W | O59.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total |
-7.5 | 6–44 | L | U56.5 |
| Close |  TLSA vs  MEM2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread |
-3 | 35–29 | W | O60.5 |
| Close |  OKST vs  WVU2022 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread |
-5.5 | 19–24 | L | U59.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-6.5 | 25–23 | L | U60 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 16–30 | L | U58.5 |
| Close |  ARMY vs  GAST2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation |
-8.5 | 14–31 | L | U54 |
| Close |  NCST vs  LOU2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-6 | 28–13 | W | U57 |
APP
CCU
WSU
COLO
ARIZ
UNLV
CSU
WAKE
GTHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight North Texas ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward North Texas
1.5 pts (USA -7 → USA -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 5
65.5 → 60.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
North Texas have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 101 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UNT | 5-5 50% | 7-2-1 78% | 4-5 44% |
| USA | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 5-4 56% |
Recent meetings
The series
UNT 3–0 USA
UNT leads · 3 games since 2012 · UNT has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
USA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
83° · 4 mph
gusts 11 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNT1st game
USA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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