Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 1 · at South Carolina
Closing spread
SC -20.5
✓ ODU W
Total
48.5
▼ Under · 42 pts
Model before kickoff
ODU 15–35 SC
✓ SC (92%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSC -21
CloseSC -20.5
Total55 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSC -21
0.5 → ODU
CloseSC -20.5
0.5 pts toward Old Dominion
Total
Open55
▼ 6.5
Close48.5
Down 6.5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SC -21 · closed SC -20.5 · moved 0.5 toward ODUmodel SC -18
model SC -18
Opened 55 · closed 48.5 · moved 6.5 downmodel 51
model 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 18.5–22.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 48% (48 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSC -21
CloseSC -20.5
Total55 → 48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
SC as a 20.5-point home favorite against ODU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: SC won 23–19; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 89%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.6 against an average line of 19.8; 45.2 points a game (usually 55.6). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar situation & team ratings |
-17.5 | 34–27 | L | O52.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 1 · close · similar team ratings & situation |
-16.5 | 38–3 | W | U45.25 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 5 · close |
-21.5 | 21–26 | L | P47 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-21 | 23–19 | L | U47.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings |
-21.75 | 40–13 | W | O51.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar spread |
-20 | 44–0 | W | O42 |
| Close | 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & spread |
-21.5 | 31–7 | W | U51.75 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 11 · close |
-17 | 21–24 | L | U45.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread |
-23 | 42–9 | W | O47.5 |
| Close | 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings |
-18.5 | 20–10 | L | U43.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 6.5
55 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Old Dominion have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-5 50% | 5-4 56% | 4-4 50% | |
| 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
83° · 3 mph
gusts 11 mph · 0.114 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
ODU1st game
SC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

