Thu, Aug 29, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Jacksonville State
Closing spread
JXST -3.5
✓ CCU W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 82 pts
Model before kickoff
CCU 24–27 JXST
✗ JXST (59%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenJXST -3
CloseJXST -3.5
Total56.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenJXST -3
0.5 → JXST
CloseJXST -3.5
0.5 pts toward Jacksonville State
Total
Open56.5
▼ 2
Close54.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened JXST -3 · closed JXST -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward JXSTmodel JXST -1
model JXST -1
Opened 56.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 2 downmodel 52
model 52
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 47% (106 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenJXST -3
CloseJXST -3.5
Total56.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
JXST as a 3.5-point home favorite against CCU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: CCU won 55–27 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 82 points went over 54.5, as in 2 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
2 of 922%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2.4 against an average line of 3.1; 47 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |  DUKE vs  UVA2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-2 | 38–17 | W | P55 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 27–24 | L | U52.5 |
| Very close |  STAN vs  ASU2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 15–14 | L | U52 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & situation |
-3.5 | 27–24 | L | U57 |
| Very close |  TLSA vs  HOU2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 10–45 | L | O54 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 10–42 | L | U56.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 20–17 | P | U54.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 14–24 | L | U53.75 |
| Very close |  GAST vs  ODU2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 31–17 | W | U53.75 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-3 | 31–23 | W | O49.5 |
BC
TROY
WKU
RICE
FAU
CIN
JMU
USAHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
56.5 → 54.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Coastal Carolina have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 161 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 CCU | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
| JXST | 7-3 70% | 6-2-2 75% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CCU 1–0 JXST
CCU leads · 1 game since 2023 · CCU has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 9 2023 | Jacksonville State 16 @ Coastal Carolina 30 | CCU -13.5 | CCU W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
JXST +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
83° · 2 mph
gusts 7 mph · at kickoff
Rest
CCU1st game
JXST1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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