Thu, Aug 29, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Colorado
Closing spread
COLO -11.5
✓ NDSU W
Total
54.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
NDSU 22–35 COLO
✓ COLO (82%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCOLO -8.5
CloseCOLO -11.5
Total59.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCOLO -8.5
3 → COLO
CloseCOLO -11.5
3 pts toward Colorado
Total
Open59.5
▼ 5
Close54.5
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened COLO -8.5 · closed COLO -11.5 · moved 3 toward COLOmodel COLO -17.5
model COLO -17.5
Opened 59.5 · closed 54.5 · moved 5 downmodel 57.5
model 57.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 48% (68 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCOLO -8.5
CloseCOLO -11.5
Total59.5 → 54.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
COLO as an 11.5-point home favorite against NDSU, the favorite won 8, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: COLO won 31–26; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 54.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 79%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 13.4; 48.4 points a game (usually 55.4). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  PUR vs  NEB2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread |
-14 | 43–37 | L | O56 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread |
-10.5 | 31–24 | L | U56 |
| Close |  APP vs  TROY2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation |
-14 | 32–28 | L | O52 |
| Close |  MIZ vs  CMU2021 · Week 1 · close · similar situation & spread |
-14 | 34–24 | L | U59 |
| Close |  ECU vs  ODU2022 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread |
-13 | 39–21 | W | O49.75 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 10 · close |
-13.5 | 7–10 | L | U58 |
| Close |  UCF vs  TULN2021 · Week 10 · close |
-13.5 | 14–10 | L | U57 |
| Close |  TOL vs  NIU2021 · Week 6 · close |
-13 | 20–22 | L | U51 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total |
-13.5 | 47–6 | W | U53.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation |
-14.5 | 21–14 | L | U49 |
FRES
UNLV
WSU
STAN
SC
VAN
BC
CONNHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Colorado ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Green signals have beaten the market in our backtest; yellow ones only describe the data.
Market moved toward Colorado
3 pts (COLO -8.5 → COLO -11.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 5
59.5 → 54.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Colorado at altitude (+1.4 km)
North Dakota State climb about 4,462 ft to play here; visitors have covered less often than the line expects at altitude. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-41 (61%)
Small sample warning
North Dakota State have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 161 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| COLO | 2-8 20% | 5-4-1 56% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
COLO +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
79° · 9 mph
gusts 18 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NDSU1st game
COLO1st game
Even
Altitude
NDSU +4,462 ft
thin air for the visitors
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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