Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Arizona State
Weather at kickoff95°F14 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›
0-0 · Power #114
7
final
Final
@
0-0 · Power #18
48
▲ winner
Closing spread
ASU -6.5
✓ ASU W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
WYO 18–24 ASU
✓ ASU (67%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenASU -6.5
CloseASU -6.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
No change since the open
Total
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ASU -6.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -5
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 42.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 54% (70 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenASU -6.5
CloseASU -6.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ASU as a 6.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up to
games
This game: ASU won 48–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 67%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 6.1; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
FAU vs GASO
2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total
-738–6 W U48.5
Very close
NU vs M-OH
2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & total
-7.514–17 L U50
Very close
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-6.548–41 W O44
Very close
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-5.524–17 W U41.5
Very close
GAST vs TROY
2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total
-6.537–10 W U49.5
Very close
CAL vs STAN
2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings
-527–20 W O46
Very close
SDSU vs ARIZ
2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings
-6.2520–38 L O46.5
Very close
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread
-4.532–7 W U48.5
Very close
SC vs TROY
2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total
-6.523–14 W U43.5
Very close
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread
-5.543–45 L O46.75
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Small sample warning
Wyoming have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Loading play-by-play…

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
ASU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
95° · 14 mph
gusts 29 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
WYO1st game
ASU1st game
Even

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week