Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Arizona State
Closing spread
ASU -6.5
✓ ASU W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 55 pts
Model before kickoff
WYO 18–24 ASU
✓ ASU (67%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenASU -6.5
CloseASU -6.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenASU -6.5
no move
CloseASU -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open47.5
no move
Close47.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ASU -6.5 · unchangedmodel ASU -5
model ASU -5
Opened 47.5 · unchangedmodel 42.5
model 42.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 54% (70 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenASU -6.5
CloseASU -6.5
Total47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
ASU as a 6.5-point home favorite against WYO, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: ASU won 48–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 67%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 6.1; 52.1 points a game (usually 53.5). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close | 2021 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total |
-7 | 38–6 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & total |
-7.5 | 14–17 | L | U50 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.5 | 48–41 | W | O44 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-5.5 | 24–17 | W | U41.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 37–10 | W | U49.5 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & team ratings |
-5 | 27–20 | W | O46 |
| Very close | 2022 · Week 1 · very close · similar spread & team ratings |
-6.25 | 20–38 | L | O46.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread |
-4.5 | 32–7 | W | U48.5 |
| Very close | 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total |
-6.5 | 23–14 | W | U43.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread |
-5.5 | 43–45 | L | O46.75 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Wyoming have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 177 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-3 70% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-5 44% | |
| 2-8 20% | 5-4-1 56% | 5-5 50% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
95° · 14 mph
gusts 29 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
WYO1st game
ASU1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

