Sat, Aug 31, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Arizona
Closing spread
ARIZ -29
✓ UNM W
Total
60.5
▲ Over · 100 pts
Model before kickoff
UNM 16–44 ARIZ
✓ ARIZ (98%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARIZ -30.5
CloseARIZ -29
Total53.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenARIZ -30.5
1.5 → UNM
CloseARIZ -29
1.5 pts toward New Mexico
Total
Open53.5
▲ 7
Close60.5
Up 7 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARIZ -30.5 · closed ARIZ -29 · moved 1.5 toward UNMmodel ARIZ -26
model ARIZ -26
Opened 53.5 · closed 60.5 · moved 7 upmodel 60
model 60
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARIZ -30.5
CloseARIZ -29
Total53.5 → 60.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ARIZ as a 29-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.
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This game: ARIZ won 61–39; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 100 points went over 60.5, as in 9 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 97%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 56%
Went over
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 60%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 23.6 against an average line of 26.9; 68.6 points a game (usually 57.6). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |  UNC vs  GAST2021 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest |
-26 | 59–17 | W | O65.5 |
| Loose |  PSU vs  BALL2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest |
-22.5 | 44–13 | W | U58 |
| Loose |  FRES vs  UNLV2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread & rest |
-30 | 38–30 | L | O59 |
| Loose |  BYU vs  USF2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-23.5 | 35–27 | L | O54.5 |
| Loose |  NEB vs  GASO2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-23.5 | 42–45 | L | O64 |
| Loose | PSU vs  OHIO2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest |
-28 | 46–10 | W | O55 |
| Loose |  TENN vs  VAN2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest |
-32 | 45–21 | L | O64.5 |
| Loose |  MICH vs  NIU2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-27.5 | 63–10 | W | O55 |
| Loose |  NEV vs  NMSU2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-28.5 | 55–28 | L | O64.75 |
| Loose |  AUB vs GAST2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-27.5 | 34–24 | L | O57.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New Mexico ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New Mexico
1.5 pts (ARIZ -30.5 → ARIZ -29). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved up 7
53.5 → 60.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Small sample warning
Arizona have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q3. Of 108 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 UNM | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
| ARIZ | 8-2 80% | 8-2 80% | 4-5 44% |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ARIZ +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
89° · 5 mph
gusts 6 mph · at kickoff
Rest
UNM7d
ARIZ1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
New Mexico← vs MTST · @ AUB →Arizonavs NAU →
SMU @ 
NDSU @ 
COLO
SAC @ 
SJSU
TCU @ 
STAN
WVU
CSU @ 
TEX
BOIS @ 
HOU
TROY