New Mexico @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sat, Sep 14, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Auburn

Weather at kickoff71°F8 mphgusts 13Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New Mexico

0-2 · Power #111

final

Final

Auburn

1-1 · Power #33

▲ winner

Closing spread

AUB -25.5

✓ AUB W

Total

58.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 15–41 AUB

✓ AUB (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -28.5

CloseAUB -25.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -28.5

3 → UNM

CloseAUB -25.5

3 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open58.5

no move

Close58.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -28.5 · closed AUB -25.5 · moved 3 toward UNMmodel AUB -28.5

model AUB -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–27.5 since 2023: won 93%, covered 47% (60 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 44% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -28.5

CloseAUB -25.5

Total58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 25.5-point home favorite against UNM, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: AUB won 45–19; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 64 points went over 58.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 18.1 against an average line of 24.6; 55.1 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LIB vs MASS 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-26.5	49–25	L	O63.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-24	33–7	W	U63
Loose	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar total	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Loose	APP vs ULM 2021 · Week 9 · loose	-27	59–28	W	O57.5
Loose	UL vs ULM 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar total	-21.5	21–16	L	U55.25
Loose	BYU vs USF 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-23.5	35–27	L	O54.5
Loose	UAB vs CLT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-22.25	34–20	L	U65

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
AUB WL	1-1	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNM away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OO	2-0	100%	0-2
AUB OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 172 earlier overs in games with totals 54.5–62.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	2-8 20%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
AUB	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−16.4▼ 5.0#131

AUB+7.1 →+6.5▼ 0.6#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

UNM

Longer bar = better

AUB

#65

Offense

AUB better ▶

#38

#131

Defense

AUB better ▶

#44

+0.5 #53

Turnovers

◀ UNM better

−3.5 #135

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ UNM faster

52 plays #135

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: AUB defense

	UNM off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #48	12.0 #31	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #71	4.09 #30	AUB
PPA / play	+0.19 #59	−0.02 #55	Even
Success rate	41% #83	36% #58	AUB

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	43.5 #19	48.0 #135	AUB
Yards / play	8.87 #4	8.78 #136	AUB
PPA / play	+0.15 #68	+0.29 #121	AUB
Success rate	44% #61	53% #131	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 81 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	12.0	12.0	24.0	7.0	4.0	11.0
AUB allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	0.0	3.5	3.5

AUB scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	17.5	12.0	29.5	7.0	7.0	14.0
UNM allowed	7.0	13.5	20.5	10.5	17.0	27.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.