Arkansas @ Auburn: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Auburn · Conference game

Weather at kickoff86°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Arkansas

2-1 · Power #32

▲ winner

Final

Auburn

2-1 · Power #33

final

Closing spread

AUB -2.5

✓ ARK W

Total

53.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 26–29 AUB

✗ AUB (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -3.5

CloseAUB -2.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenAUB -3.5

1 → ARK

CloseAUB -2.5

1 pt toward Arkansas

Total

Open58.5

▼ 5

Close53.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened AUB -3.5 · closed AUB -2.5 · moved 1 toward ARKmodel AUB -3.5

model AUB -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (120 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenAUB -3.5

CloseAUB -2.5

Total58.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like AUB as a 2.5-point home favorite against ARK, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ARK won 24–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 53.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 4.8 against an average line of 3.7; 50.2 points a game (usually 53). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Close	WVU vs VT 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	27–21	W	U49.5
Close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Close	NCST vs FSU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	19–17	L	U50.5
Close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Close	BAY vs KSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	3–31	L	U52.25
Close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Close	TCU vs KSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-3.5	38–28	W	O54.5
Close	ILL vs UVA 2022 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-4	24–3	W	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK WW–	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0
AUB WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: ARK away, as underdog; AUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OO–	2-0	100%	2-1
AUB OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 53% of games with totals 49.5–57.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	7-1 88%
AUB	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 0–1 AUB AUB leads · 1 game since 2023 · AUB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Auburn 48 @ Arkansas 10	ARK -2.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.1 →+4.8▲ 1.7#47

AUB+7.1 →+5.8▼ 1.3#36

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ARK

Longer bar = better

AUB

#20

Offense

Even

#19

#61

Defense

Even

#57

−0.7 #105

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

−2.3 #135

76 plays #10

Pace

◀ ARK faster

56 plays #132

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: ARK offense

	ARK off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	46.0 #11	14.3 #37	ARK
Yards / play	7.76 #10	4.86 #54	ARK
PPA / play	+0.26 #42	+0.07 #73	ARK
Success rate	53% #16	38% #65	ARK

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: AUB offense

	AUB off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #15	22.0 #75	AUB
Yards / play	8.38 #4	4.65 #46	AUB
PPA / play	+0.29 #34	+0.05 #70	AUB
Success rate	51% #22	37% #54	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 121 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	15.0 #6	15.0 #12	30.0 #5	4.7 #85	11.3 #12	16.0 #41
AUB allowed	5.7 #79	4.3 #30	10.0 #51	0.0 #1	4.3 #48	4.3 #15

AUB scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	16.3 #5	9.0 #56	25.3 #13	9.3 #26	9.3 #26	18.7 #23
ARK allowed	3.3 #46	5.7 #44	9.0 #45	2.0 #16	8.3 #96	10.3 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.