Ohio @ Kentucky: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Kentucky

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Ohio

2-1 · Power #65

final

Final

Kentucky

1-2 · Power #50

▲ winner

Closing spread

UK -21.5

✓ UK W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

OHIO 11–31 UK

✓ UK (93%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -18

CloseUK -21.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUK -18

3.5 → UK

CloseUK -21.5

3.5 pts toward Kentucky

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UK -18 · closed UK -21.5 · moved 3.5 toward UKmodel UK -15.5

model UK -15.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–23.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 41% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 35% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUK -18

CloseUK -21.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 21.5-point home favorite against OHIO, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UK won 41–6; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 20.8; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.9). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IOWA vs NEV 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-24	27–0	W	U39.5
Close	NEB vs LT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-20.5	28–14	L	U45
Close	IOWA vs TROY 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	38–21	L	O39
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-19.5	30–27	L	O48
Close	FRES vs NMSU 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-20	48–0	W	U48.5
Close	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-16	23–17	L	U45.5
Close	MSST vs USM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-18.5	41–20	W	O47.5
Close	BYU vs WYO 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.25	38–24	L	O49.75
Close	AUB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-25	10–31	L	U48.5
Close	TA&M vs SC 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-19.5	44–14	W	O46

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OHIO WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0
UK WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	1-1

Venue/role: OHIO away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OHIO OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
UK UUU	0-3	0%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 96 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–45.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OHIO	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
UK	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OHIO−3.6 →−5.6▼ 2.0#88

UK+5.8 →+6.3▲ 0.5#34

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

OHIO

Longer bar = better

#77

Offense

◀ OHIO better

#110

#74

Defense

UK better ▶

#43

−1.0 #110

Turnovers

UK better ▶

−0.3 #91

65 plays #78

Pace

◀ OHIO faster

59 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: UK defense

	OHIO off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #101	14.7 #39	UK
Yards / play	6.09 #67	4.78 #51	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	−0.04 #40	UK
Success rate	46% #46	35% #42	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	UK off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #124	21.3 #68	OHIO
Yards / play	4.40 #129	5.24 #70	OHIO
PPA / play	−0.01 #116	+0.12 #86	OHIO
Success rate	43% #69	39% #70	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 117 FBS teams

OHIO scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	7.7 #50	5.7 #83	13.3 #73	7.0 #53	3.0 #105	10.0 #89
UK allowed	3.5	3.0	6.5	8.5	7.0	15.5

UK scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	1.5	4.5	6.0	1.5	1.5	3.0
OHIO allowed	1.0 #9	10.0 #91	11.0 #61	7.0 #79	3.3 #31	10.3 #52

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.