Vanderbilt @ Missouri: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Missouri · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F3 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

2-1 · Power #53

final

Final

Missouri

3-0 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIZ -18.5

✓ VAN W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 18–37 MIZ

✓ MIZ (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -21

CloseMIZ -18.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIZ -21

2.5 → VAN

CloseMIZ -18.5

2.5 pts toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open52.5

no move

Close52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIZ -21 · closed MIZ -18.5 · moved 2.5 toward VANmodel MIZ -23

model MIZ -23

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 17.5–19.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 56% (43 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 41% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIZ -21

CloseMIZ -18.5

Total52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIZ as an 18.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MIZ won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 52.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.4 against an average line of 16.5; 57.2 points a game (usually 54.3). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DUKE vs NU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	38–14	W	O48
Close	PUR vs FAU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.25	28–26	L	U57.25
Close	CCU vs TROY 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-17	35–28	L	O50
Close	OU vs ISU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-20	50–20	W	O48.5
Close	UGA vs ARK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	37–0	W	U48.5
Close	UGA vs UK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-14.5	51–13	W	O47
Close	OU vs TULN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	34–19	W	O49
Close	MISS vs GT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-17	48–23	W	O61.5
Close	TEX vs KU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	40–14	W	U61
Close	OSU vs MD 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & spread	-17	37–17	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	1-0
MIZ WWL	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; MIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
MIZ UUU	0-3	0%	3-0

Went over in OT. Of 230 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
MIZ	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Missouri 38 @ Vanderbilt 21	MIZ -14	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN−6.1 →−2.5▲ 3.6#77

MIZ+14.2 →+15.9▲ 1.7#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

VAN

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#41

Offense

Even

#34

#62

Defense

MIZ better ▶

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

Even

+1.0 #25

61 plays #109

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

78 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	VAN off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #22	7.0 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.94 #79	3.54 #9	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.28 #38	−0.20 #6	MIZ
Success rate	50% #23	28% #3	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #24	21.0 #66	MIZ
Yards / play	6.18 #62	4.89 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #31	+0.07 #77	MIZ
Success rate	53% #17	36% #50	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 129 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	4.3 #92	13.7 #20	18.0 #47	3.3 #112	16.7 #1	20.0 #20
MIZ allowed	2.3 #24	2.3 #15	4.7 #11	0.0 #1	2.3 #20	2.3 #6

MIZ scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	11.3 #18	14.0 #16	25.3 #14	8.0 #45	5.3 #87	13.3 #66
VAN allowed	1.0 #9	4.0 #31	5.0 #14	6.7 #85	9.3 #116	16.0 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.