UL Monroe @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Texas

Weather at kickoff93°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

UL Monroe

2-0 · Power #115

final

Final

Texas

3-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -41.5

✓ TEX W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

ULM 2–45 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -45

CloseTEX -41.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -45

3.5 → ULM

CloseTEX -41.5

3.5 pts toward UL Monroe

Total

Open52.5

▲ 1

Close53.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -45 · closed TEX -41.5 · moved 3.5 toward ULMmodel TEX -46.5

model TEX -46.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -45

CloseTEX -41.5

Total52.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like TEX as a 41.5-point home favorite against ULM, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 51–3; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 54 points went over 53.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

—

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39 against an average line of 39; 59 points a game (usually 55.1). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	OSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 5 · loose	-39	49–10	P	O58

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WW	2-0	100%	—	1-0
TEX WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: ULM away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UU	0-2	0%	2-0
TEX UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 224 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	4-5 44%
TEX	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.3 →−14.2▲ 3.1#123

TEX+19.1 →+25.5▲ 6.4#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ULM

Longer bar = better

TEX

#80

Offense

TEX better ▶

#14

#49

Defense

TEX better ▶

#13

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ ULM better

+1.0 #27

60 plays #119

Pace

TEX faster ▶

70 plays #37

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	ULM off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #67	6.3 #3	TEX
Yards / play	5.27 #104	4.07 #16	TEX
PPA / play	+0.21 #52	−0.19 #3	TEX
Success rate	41% #97	35% #29	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #11	10.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	7.41 #16	4.54 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.42 #11	+0.04 #61	TEX
Success rate	50% #19	42% #92	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 131 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	5.0	8.5	13.5	8.0	9.5	17.5
TEX allowed	0.0 #1	3.3 #25	3.3 #5	1.0 #8	2.0 #14	3.0 #7

TEX scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	9.3 #32	18.3 #2	27.7 #7	11.7 #10	7.0 #56	18.7 #25
ULM allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.