Mississippi State @ Texas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Texas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff90°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

1-3 · Power #72

final

Final

Texas

4-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

TEX -38.5

✓ MSST W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 11–49 TEX

✓ TEX (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -38

CloseTEX -38.5

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -38

0.5 → TEX

CloseTEX -38.5

0.5 pts toward Texas

Total

Open61.5

▼ 3

Close58.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -38 · closed TEX -38.5 · moved 0.5 toward TEXmodel TEX -34

model TEX -34

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 36.5–40.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 60% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -38

CloseTEX -38.5

Total61.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 38.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TEX won 35–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 58.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 59%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 39 against an average line of 37.6; 55.8 points a game (usually 56.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs RUTG 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-39	49–10	P	O58
Close	UGA vs MIZ 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-40	43–6	L	U59
Close	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Close	ORE vs HAW 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-38.25	55–10	W	U67.75
Close	ND vs CMU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-34.75	41–17	L	O51.25
Loose	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-41	49–21	L	O56
Loose	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & spread	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Loose	ALA vs VAN 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-40.5	55–3	W	U60.75
Loose	MICH vs NEB 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-30.5	34–3	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WLL–	1-2	33%	0-1	0-1
TEX WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; TEX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OUO–	2-1	67%	1-3
TEX UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	3-7 30%	3-5-1 38%	4-4-1 50%
TEX	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+1.2 →−3.6▼ 4.8#81

TEX+19.1 →+25.1▲ 6.0#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MSST

Longer bar = better

TEX

#61

Offense

TEX better ▶

#14

#113

Defense

TEX better ▶

−0.3 #87

Turnovers

TEX better ▶

+0.8 #40

67 plays #59

Pace

TEX faster ▶

73 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	MSST off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #64	5.5 #2	TEX
Yards / play	5.97 #73	3.67 #6	TEX
PPA / play	+0.22 #49	−0.21 #2	TEX
Success rate	44% #59	33% #16	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #11	30.8 #107	TEX
Yards / play	7.05 #21	5.75 #92	TEX
PPA / play	+0.40 #11	+0.25 #122	TEX
Success rate	52% #11	51% #129	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	5.3 #84	8.5 #68	13.8 #80	7.0 #61	10.3 #19	17.3 #32
TEX allowed	0.0 #1	3.3 #20	3.3 #4	0.8 #4	1.5 #7	2.3 #2

TEX scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	12.3 #10	15.5 #7	27.8 #4	11.0 #11	8.8 #35	19.8 #19
MSST allowed	6.0 #88	16.5 #132	22.5 #127	4.3 #48	4.0 #41	8.3 #35

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.