Georgia @ Alabama: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Alabama · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Georgia

3-0 · Power #8

final

Final

Alabama

3-0 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -1.5

✓ ALA W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 75 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 26–25 ALA

✗ UGA (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -2.5

1 → ALA

CloseUGA -1.5

1 pt toward Alabama

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -2.5 · closed UGA -1.5 · moved 1 toward ALAmodel ALA -4.5

model ALA -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 50%, covered 46% (54 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (37 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like UGA as a 1.5-point road favorite at ALA, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: ALA won 41–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 75 points went over 50.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 5.5; 35 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA WLL	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
ALA WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	—

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; ALA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA UUU	0-3	0%	3-0
ALA OUO	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 255 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	9-1 90%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%
ALA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UGA 27–45 ALA (3 tied) ALA leads · 75 games since 1902 · UGA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 2 2023	Georgia 24 @ Alabama 27	UGA -5.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+24.2 →+24.4▲ 0.2#4

ALA+20.2 →+25.6▲ 5.4#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

UGA

Longer bar = better

ALA

#39

Offense

ALA better ▶

#23

#17

Defense

Even

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

◀ UGA better

0.0 #82

58 plays #126

Pace

ALA faster ▶

63 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	UGA off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #59	8.7 #6	ALA
Yards / play	6.90 #24	3.37 #3	ALA
PPA / play	+0.31 #24	−0.19 #4	Even
Success rate	46% #48	31% #5	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	49.0 #6	6.0 #3	Even
Yards / play	7.41 #16	3.50 #5	Even
PPA / play	+0.47 #9	−0.05 #27	Even
Success rate	44% #61	36% #33	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	4.7 #91	6.3 #98	11.0 #100	12.7 #7	8.0 #45	20.7 #16
ALA allowed	2.0 #18	1.0 #3	3.0 #3	4.7 #53	1.0 #3	5.7 #20

ALA scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	11.7 #14	14.0 #11	25.7 #10	9.3 #23	14.0 #4	23.3 #4
UGA allowed	1.0 #7	1.0 #3	2.0 #2	2.0 #14	2.0 #10	4.0 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.