Arkansas vs Texas A&M: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · Neutral site · Conference game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arkansas

3-1 · Power #32

final

Final

Texas A&M

3-1 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

TA&M -7.5

✓ ARK W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

ARK 22–29 TA&M

✓ TA&M (70%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -4.5

CloseTA&M -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTA&M -4.5

3 → TA&M

CloseTA&M -7.5

3 pts toward Texas A&M

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TA&M -4.5 · closed TA&M -7.5 · moved 3 toward TA&Mmodel TA&M -7

model TA&M -7

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTA&M -4.5

CloseTA&M -7.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TA&M as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against ARK, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TA&M won 21–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.9 against an average line of 5.6; 50.7 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs ARK 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	34–22	W	O54
Close	OKST vs BAY 2021 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7	16–21	L	U45
Close	MIZ vs MEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	34–27	W	O52
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Loose	TA&M vs ARK 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	10–20	L	U47
Loose	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & total	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Loose	UTAH vs ORE 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	38–10	W	U57.5
Loose	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Loose	WISC vs ND 2021 · Week 4 · loose	-6	13–41	L	O44
Loose	ND vs BYU 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	28–20	W	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ARK WW–W	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0
TA&M LLW–	1-2	33%	—	1-2

Venue/role: ARK neutral, as underdog; TA&M neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OO–U	2-1	67%	3-1
TA&M UOO–	2-1	67%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
TA&M	6-4 60%	3-5-1 38%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARK 42–38 TA&M (3 tied) ARK leads · 83 games since 1903 · TA&M has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Texas A&M 34 @ Arkansas 22	TA&M -6.5	TA&M W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+3.1 →+6.2▲ 3.1#35

TA&M+13.5 →+12.4▼ 1.1#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

ARK

Longer bar = better

TA&M

#36

Offense

◀ ARK better

#56

#53

Defense

Even

#46

+0.3 #69

Turnovers

TA&M better ▶

+0.8 #41

78 plays #5

Pace

◀ ARK faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	TA&M def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #20	18.3 #42	ARK
Yards / play	6.76 #28	5.38 #66	ARK
PPA / play	+0.17 #61	+0.01 #43	Even
Success rate	48% #33	36% #32	Even

When TA&M has the ball

Even matchup

	TA&M off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	31.0 #66	20.0 #47	Even
Yards / play	6.08 #66	5.24 #62	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #52	−0.02 #33	Even
Success rate	47% #39	40% #71	TA&M

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the TA&M defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	11.3 #19	13.0 #20	24.3 #16	5.3 #90	11.0 #13	16.3 #45
TA&M allowed	0.8 #5	1.5 #7	2.3 #3	8.8 #118	7.3 #95	16.0 #116

TA&M scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TA&M scored	8.5 #38	10.8 #45	19.3 #36	6.8 #68	5.0 #99	11.8 #83
ARK allowed	2.5 #30	4.3 #27	6.8 #20	3.3 #28	8.0 #102	11.3 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.