Massachusetts @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Miami (OH)

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphgusts 17Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Massachusetts

1-3 · Power #125

final

Final

Miami (OH)

0-3 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -15.5

✓ MASS W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 14–30 M-OH

✓ M-OH (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -17

CloseM-OH -15.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -17

1.5 → MASS

CloseM-OH -15.5

1.5 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -17 · closed M-OH -15.5 · moved 1.5 toward MASSmodel M-OH -16.5

model M-OH -16.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 92%, covered 49% (51 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (33 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -17

CloseM-OH -15.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 15.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 23–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 84%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.7 against an average line of 14.2; 49.5 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	NEB vs NIU 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	35–11	W	O42.75
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	IU vs AKR 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-16.5	29–27	L	O46
Close	CMU vs AKR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	17–10	L	U44
Close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Loose	BC vs CONN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U49
Loose	WYO vs UNM 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-14	35–26	L	O41
Loose	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Loose	ILL vs FAU 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-16	23–17	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
M-OH LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3
M-OH UUU	0-3	0%	0-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-5 44%
M-OH	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MASS 0–1 M-OH M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 9 2023	Miami (OH) 41 @ Massachusetts 28	M-OH -7	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−12.1 →−17.6▼ 5.5#129

M-OH−4.7 →−5.3▼ 0.6#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MASS

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#117

Offense

Even

#125

#67

Defense

◀ MASS better

#91

−0.3 #85

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #89

75 plays #11

Pace

◀ MASS faster

62 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	MASS off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #117	22.7 #65	M-OH
Yards / play	4.50 #127	5.99 #102	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.03 #107	+0.10 #78	M-OH
Success rate	37% #117	47% #117	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	M-OH off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	8.3 #137	32.8 #116	MASS
Yards / play	4.74 #121	5.45 #72	MASS
PPA / play	−0.13 #132	+0.05 #61	MASS
Success rate	39% #111	34% #19	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	1.8 #128	7.5 #86	9.3 #111	4.3 #105	5.3 #95	9.5 #108
M-OH allowed	2.0 #20	7.0 #63	9.0 #45	7.0 #90	6.7 #82	13.7 #91

M-OH scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	1.0 #132	2.0 #131	3.0 #133	2.3 #127	3.0 #125	5.3 #130
MASS allowed	3.5 #54	12.0 #121	15.5 #100	8.5 #114	8.8 #116	17.3 #123

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.