San Diego State @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sat, Sep 28, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Central Michigan

Weather at kickoff76°F13 mphgusts 28DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

San Diego State

1-2 · Power #122

final

Final

Central Michigan

2-2 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -2.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

SDSU 24–26 CMU

✓ CMU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -0.5

CloseCMU -2.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -0.5

2 → CMU

CloseCMU -2.5

2 pts toward Central Michigan

Total

Open55.5

▼ 7

Close48.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -0.5 · closed CMU -2.5 · moved 2 toward CMUmodel CMU -0.5

model CMU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 49% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (49 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -0.5

CloseCMU -2.5

Total55.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 2.5-point home favorite against SDSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: CMU won 22–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 48.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.2 against an average line of 3.1; 46.6 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ODU vs GAST 2023 · Week 13 · close	-2	25–24	L	U50
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-4	20–17	L	U55
Loose	BUFF vs M-OH 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3	24–20	W	U50.25
Loose	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Loose	STAN vs ASU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	15–14	L	U52
Loose	GAST vs ODU 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	31–17	W	U53.75
Loose	CMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread & team ratings	-2.75	31–27	W	O54
Loose	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Loose	BUFF vs KENT 2022 · Week 13 · loose	-4.5	27–30	L	O51
Loose	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · loose	-2	14–42	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDSU –LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2
CMU WLWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: SDSU away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDSU –UU	0-2	0%	1-2
CMU OOUO	3-1	75%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSU	3-7 30%	4-5 44%	3-5-1 38%
CMU	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SDSU 1–1 CMU Series tied · 2 games since 2019 · CMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SDSU−8.3 →−9.3▼ 1.0#105

CMU−12.0 →−13.2▼ 1.2#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

SDSU

Longer bar = better

CMU

#119

Offense

CMU better ▶

#53

#69

Defense

◀ SDSU better

#105

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

◀ SDSU better

−1.8 #133

62 plays #100

Pace

Even

63 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SDSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SDSU off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #120	31.5 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.94 #115	5.55 #80	CMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #108	+0.25 #121	Even
Success rate	32% #132	43% #106	CMU

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #53	22.0 #63	Even
Yards / play	6.73 #29	5.16 #59	CMU
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.02 #46	Even
Success rate	43% #71	44% #109	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SDSU scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	2.0 #125	0.0 #134	2.0 #134	7.0 #60	9.3 #28	16.3 #44
CMU allowed	7.8 #109	8.5 #92	16.3 #104	7.0 #90	8.3 #107	15.3 #111

CMU scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	4.3 #95	15.5 #9	19.8 #34	8.0 #45	4.3 #107	12.3 #77
SDSU allowed	4.7 #71	2.0 #11	6.7 #18	7.3 #100	8.0 #102	15.3 #112

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.