Ball State @ Central Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

1-1 · Power #126

final

Final

Central Michigan

1-2 · Power #123

▲ winner

Closing spread

CMU -5.5

✓ BALL W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 23–28 CMU

✓ CMU (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -6

CloseCMU -5.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCMU -6

0.5 → BALL

CloseCMU -5.5

0.5 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open53.5

▼ 4

Close49.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CMU -6 · closed CMU -5.5 · moved 0.5 toward BALLmodel CMU -5.5 matches the line

model CMU -5.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 51% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCMU -6

CloseCMU -5.5

Total53.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CMU as a 5.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CMU won 37–34; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 4.7; 52.5 points a game (usually 53). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	EMU vs MASS 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	19–17	L	U49.75
Close	BC vs UVA 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–24	L	U52.5
Close	MTSU vs CSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–31	L	O50
Close	TXST vs ULM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–19	W	U57.5
Close	WMU vs BALL 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	42–24	W	O50.5
Close	BUFF vs BGSU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	14–24	L	U44.5
Close	EMU vs BUFF 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	31–50	L	O57.5
Close	EMU vs KENT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–14	W	O40
Close	TLSA vs CLT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	26–33	L	O47.5
Close	CMU vs BGSU 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	18–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL W–	1-0	100%	—	—
CMU WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; CMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL O–	1-0	100%	1-1
CMU OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 223 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	4-6 40%	7-2 78%	3-5 38%
CMU	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BALL 26–22 CMU (1 tied) BALL leads · 49 games since 1975 · CMU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Central Michigan 17 @ Ball State 24	CMU -5	BALL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−16.8▼ 5.6#129

CMU−12.0 →−14.1▼ 2.1#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

BALL

Longer bar = better

CMU

#124

Offense

CMU better ▶

#85

#129

Defense

CMU better ▶

#98

0.0 #75

Turnovers

◀ BALL better

−2.0 #133

66 plays #67

Pace

Even

66 plays #66

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	BALL off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #111	30.7 #109	Even
Yards / play	4.17 #131	5.53 #84	CMU
PPA / play	−0.13 #131	+0.25 #122	Even
Success rate	35% #121	40% #75	CMU

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: CMU offense

	CMU off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #70	48.0 #136	CMU
Yards / play	5.90 #80	8.49 #136	CMU
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.30 #127	CMU
Success rate	41% #85	46% #116	CMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 118 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	0.0	3.5	3.5	3.5	14.0	17.5
CMU allowed	7.0 #87	9.0 #87	16.0 #88	7.0 #80	7.7 #87	14.7 #95

CMU scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	5.7 #65	13.0 #27	18.7 #41	10.7 #17	1.0 #113	11.7 #69
BALL allowed	8.5	10.5	19.0	8.5	20.5	29.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.