Akron @ South Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at South Carolina

Weather at kickoff76°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Akron

1-2 · Power #124

final

Final

South Carolina

2-1 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -22.5

✓ SC W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 12–35 SC

✓ SC (95%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -27.5

CloseSC -22.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -27.5

5 → AKR

CloseSC -22.5

5 pts toward Akron

Total

Open46.5

▼ 6

Close40.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -27.5 · closed SC -22.5 · moved 5 toward AKRmodel SC -28.5

model SC -28.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–24.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 44% (67 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -27.5

CloseSC -22.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 22.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SC won 50–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.6 against an average line of 21.9; 46.6 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BOIS vs CSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-25	49–10	W	O42.5
Loose	AFA vs UNM 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest	-21	35–3	W	O37.25
Loose	JMU vs CONN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-25	44–6	W	O47.5
Loose	ORST vs COLO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-23	42–9	W	O47.5
Loose	ND vs BC 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-20	44–0	W	O42
Loose	ARK vs FIU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-27.5	44–20	L	O49.5
Loose	CIN vs NAVY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & total	-18.5	20–10	L	U43.5
Loose	AFA vs CSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-21.5	24–12	L	U43
Loose	ISU vs OHIO 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20	43–10	W	O48
Loose	SJSU vs KENN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17	31–10	W	U42

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WLL	1-2	33%	1-1	1-1
SC LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OOO	3-0	100%	1-2
SC UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 84 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–44.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-3 67%
SC	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.9 →−16.9▼ 3.0#130

SC+5.6 →+6.6▲ 1.0#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

AKR

Longer bar = better

#118

Offense

SC better ▶

#102

#115

Defense

SC better ▶

#48

−1.0 #113

Turnovers

SC better ▶

+1.0 #36

66 plays #68

Pace

◀ AKR faster

63 plays #89

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	AKR off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #119	20.3 #63	SC
Yards / play	4.55 #126	4.37 #30	SC
PPA / play	−0.04 #120	−0.06 #34	SC
Success rate	39% #107	39% #66	SC

When SC has the ball

Even matchup

	SC off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #77	40.3 #127	SC
Yards / play	4.94 #116	6.02 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #98	+0.22 #112	Even
Success rate	36% #118	46% #117	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	3.3 #107	8.0 #73	11.3 #94	3.3 #114	3.3 #115	6.7 #123
SC allowed	2.3 #23	7.3 #75	9.7 #56	5.0 #56	5.7 #70	10.7 #56

SC scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.0 #43	7.7 #80	15.7 #69	5.7 #80	7.7 #47	13.3 #65
AKR allowed	10.3 #124	8.0 #83	18.3 #111	12.7 #129	9.3 #119	22.0 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.