Iowa @ Minnesota: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Minnesota · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Iowa

2-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota

2-1 · Power #26

final

Closing spread

IOWA -2.5

✓ IOWA W

Total

34.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

IOWA 18–16 MINN

✓ IOWA (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total36.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIOWA -2.5

no move

CloseIOWA -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open36.5

▼ 2

Close34.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IOWA -2.5 · unchangedmodel MINN -0.5

model MINN -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 52%, covered 43% (81 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIOWA -2.5

CloseIOWA -2.5

Total36.5 → 34.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IOWA as a 2.5-point road favorite at MINN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: IOWA won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 34.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 47%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 4.2; 43.7 points a game (usually 53). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IOWA @ ISU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	20–13	W	U35.5
Close	KSU @ ISU 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-1	10–9	P	U45
Close	IOWA @ RUTG 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	27–10	W	O34.5
Loose	MINN @ ILL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	14–26	L	P40
Loose	FRES @ SDSU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	30–20	W	O44.25
Loose	TOL @ M-OH 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2	21–17	W	U46.5
Loose	ISU @ BAY 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-7	29–31	L	O46
Loose	WISC @ PUR 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–13	W	O41
Loose	PSU @ AUB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	41–12	W	O47.5
Loose	UTAH @ SDSU 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	31–33	L	O43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IOWA –LL	0-2	0%	—	0-2
MINN LWW	2-1	67%	2-1	0-1

Venue/role: IOWA away, as favorite; MINN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IOWA –OO	2-0	100%	2-1
MINN UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 13 earlier overs in games with totals 30.5–38.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IOWA	6-4 60%	0-7 0%	2-5 29%
MINN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IOWA 54–62 MINN (2 tied) MINN leads · 118 games since 1901 · IOWA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Minnesota 12 @ Iowa 10	IOWA -3.5	MINN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IOWA+2.5 →+5.7▲ 3.2#39

MINN−1.4 →+3.9▲ 5.3#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

IOWA

Longer bar = better

MINN

#64

Offense

Even

#58

#38

Defense

MINN better ▶

+1.0 #26

Turnovers

MINN better ▶

+2.0 #6

69 plays #37

Pace

◀ IOWA faster

62 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IOWA has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	IOWA off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #57	6.3 #5	MINN
Yards / play	6.07 #72	3.49 #6	MINN
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	−0.16 #12	MINN
Success rate	46% #49	28% #4	MINN

When MINN has the ball

Even matchup

	MINN off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	30.7 #67	13.7 #34	IOWA
Yards / play	5.69 #89	4.64 #45	IOWA
PPA / play	+0.22 #54	−0.08 #30	IOWA
Success rate	52% #21	36% #44	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 130 FBS teams

IOWA scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	3.3 #107	6.3 #93	9.7 #104	11.0 #14	11.7 #13	22.7 #6
MINN allowed	0.0 #1	2.3 #16	2.3 #4	2.0 #18	2.0 #14	4.0 #12

MINN scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	3.0 #116	14.0 #16	17.0 #54	7.0 #60	6.7 #72	13.7 #64
IOWA allowed	0.0 #1	4.7 #35	4.7 #11	7.0 #89	2.0 #14	9.0 #43

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.