Purdue @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sat, Sep 21, 2024, 8:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff72°F7 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

1-1 · Power #117

final

Final

Oregon State

2-1 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -1.5

✓ ORST W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 26–29 ORST

✓ ORST (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -5.5

CloseORST -1.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -5.5

4 → PUR

CloseORST -1.5

4 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -5.5 · closed ORST -1.5 · moved 4 toward PURmodel ORST -11

model ORST -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 46%, covered 43% (72 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -5.5

CloseORST -1.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 1.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORST won 38–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 49.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 2.8; 48.1 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Close	RICE vs FAU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–21	L	U46.75
Close	USA vs GASO 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	41–14	W	O49.5
Close	WAKE vs GT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	16–30	L	U58.5
Close	SYR vs BC 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-0.5	10–17	L	U47.5
Close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-2	35–31	W	O43.5
Close	WVU vs CIN 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-5	42–21	W	O52.5
Close	CIN vs BAY 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	29–32	L	O50.5
Close	MINN vs MD 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total	-4	34–16	W	U53
Close	GAST vs TROY 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & rest	-1	7–28	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR WL	1-1	50%	—	0-1
ORST LW–	1-1	50%	0-1	1-1

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UO	1-1	50%	1-1
ORST UU–	0-2	0%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 233 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-3 67%
ORST	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−3.7▼ 4.7#82

ORST+7.8 →+2.4▼ 5.4#61

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PUR

Longer bar = better

ORST

#60

Offense

Even

#66

#106

Defense

ORST better ▶

#91

−1.5 #131

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+0.7 #47

58 plays #130

Pace

ORST faster ▶

72 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #84	21.3 #63	ORST
Yards / play	6.48 #42	6.13 #108	PUR
PPA / play	+0.16 #72	+0.18 #98	PUR
Success rate	47% #42	43% #95	PUR

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #101	33.0 #117	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #87	5.95 #101	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #45	+0.31 #131	ORST
Success rate	49% #31	41% #74	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 132 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	3.5	7.0	10.5	10.5	7.0	17.5
ORST allowed	5.3 #84	5.0 #37	10.3 #62	5.3 #66	5.7 #72	11.0 #62

ORST scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.0 #53	5.7 #101	12.7 #89	4.7 #97	7.0 #57	11.7 #84
PUR allowed	7.0	14.0	21.0	5.0	7.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.