Colorado State @ Oregon State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 6:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oregon State

Weather at kickoff69°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Colorado State

2-2 · Power #100

final

Final

Oregon State

3-1 · Power #98

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORST -10.5

✓ CSU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

CSU 19–31 ORST

✓ ORST (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -14

CloseORST -10.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORST -14

3.5 → CSU

CloseORST -10.5

3.5 pts toward Colorado State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORST -14 · closed ORST -10.5 · moved 3.5 toward CSUmodel ORST -17

model ORST -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (63 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORST -14

CloseORST -10.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORST as a 10.5-point home favorite against CSU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ORST won 39–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 11; 38.4 points a game (usually 55.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORST vs CAL 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & spread	-11.5	38–10	W	O47
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Close	MTSU vs USM 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar total & season form	-12.5	35–10	W	U47.25
Close	NEB vs NU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	17–9	L	U40
Close	ORE vs CAL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	RICE vs CONN 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-10	31–38	L	O47.5
Close	PUR vs ILL 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-10.5	13–9	L	U53.25
Close	DUKE vs VT 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-10	24–7	W	U50
Close	UTAH vs CAL 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	34–14	W	O43
Close	UVA vs ODU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-8.25	16–14	L	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CSU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2
ORST LW–W	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: CSU away, as underdog; ORST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CSU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2
ORST UU–O	1-2	33%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 234 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CSU	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%
ORST	5-5 50%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CSU−8.3 →−10.4▼ 2.1#108

ORST+7.8 →+2.4▼ 5.4#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

CSU

Longer bar = better

ORST

#111

Offense

ORST better ▶

#59

#88

Defense

Even

#84

−1.3 #126

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+1.0 #24

64 plays #87

Pace

ORST faster ▶

73 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CSU has the ball

Advantage: ORST defense

	CSU off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	18.5 #122	21.3 #50	ORST
Yards / play	5.11 #108	6.27 #117	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #122	+0.11 #83	ORST
Success rate	41% #93	42% #84	Even

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	CSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #80	28.5 #98	Even
Yards / play	5.77 #80	5.87 #98	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #43	+0.09 #75	ORST
Success rate	47% #32	41% #82	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CSU scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CSU scored	5.0 #90	5.3 #112	10.3 #105	4.3 #105	4.0 #116	8.3 #122
ORST allowed	4.0 #43	5.5 #42	9.5 #40	4.0 #36	7.8 #102	11.8 #66

ORST scoring against the CSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	7.0 #56	6.8 #93	13.8 #77	5.3 #89	8.8 #40	14.0 #61
CSU allowed	3.5 #38	10.3 #114	13.8 #89	8.8 #115	6.0 #67	14.8 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.