Hawai'i @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Hawai'i

2-2 · Power #109

final

Final

San Diego State

1-3 · Power #122

▲ winner

Closing spread

SDSU -1.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 21–23 SDSU

✓ SDSU (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSDSU -2.5

1 → HAW

CloseSDSU -1.5

1 pt toward Hawai'i

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SDSU -2.5 · closed SDSU -1.5 · moved 1 toward HAWmodel SDSU -4.5

model SDSU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 49%, covered 45% (84 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (45 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSDSU -2.5

CloseSDSU -1.5

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SDSU as a 1.5-point home favorite against HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 27–24; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3.1; 44.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU vs MTSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	17–27	L	U49.5
Very close	MTSU vs JXST 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	30–45	L	O52
Close	BALL vs M-OH 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	17–24	L	U53
Close	M-OH vs BALL 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	18–17	L	U45
Close	SDSU vs UNLV 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	14–10	L	U47
Close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Close	UTEP vs MTSU 2022 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	13–24	L	U52
Close	CONN vs FAU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	48–14	W	O45.5
Close	GT vs UVA 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	9–16	L	U48
Close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	38–10	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LW–W	2-1	67%	—	1-0
SDSU –LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—

Venue/role: HAW away, as underdog; SDSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UU–U	0-3	0%	2-2
SDSU –UUU	0-3	0%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 247 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	2-7 22%
SDSU	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	2-6-1 25%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HAW 0–1 SDSU SDSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SDSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	San Diego State 41 @ Hawai'i 34	SDSU -6.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.7 →−10.4▲ 1.3#109

SDSU−8.3 →−10.2▼ 1.9#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HAW

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#80

Offense

◀ HAW better

#116

#30

Defense

◀ HAW better

#61

0.0 #68

Turnovers

SDSU better ▶

+0.8 #33

65 plays #79

Pace

◀ HAW faster

64 plays #93

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Even matchup

	HAW off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #100	22.0 #55	SDSU
Yards / play	5.54 #92	5.15 #52	SDSU
PPA / play	+0.09 #87	+0.06 #54	SDSU
Success rate	46% #39	42% #84	HAW

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: HAW defense

	SDSU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #120	17.0 #24	HAW
Yards / play	5.05 #112	5.06 #43	HAW
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.03 #40	HAW
Success rate	33% #132	35% #12	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	9.0 #22	3.3 #130	12.3 #94	6.8 #66	5.3 #107	12.0 #85
SDSU allowed	6.0 #90	2.3 #8	8.3 #30	7.0 #94	6.8 #82	13.8 #98

SDSU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	3.3 #116	3.5 #128	6.8 #130	5.3 #89	7.0 #59	12.3 #83
HAW allowed	1.8 #8	6.0 #44	7.8 #19	6.0 #78	3.3 #21	9.3 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.