Miami @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami

5-0 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

California

3-1 · Power #55

final

Closing spread

MIA -8.5

✓ CAL W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 77 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 32–23 CAL

✓ MIA (74%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -13.5

5 → CAL

CloseMIA -8.5

5 pts toward California

Total

Open55.5

▼ 2

Close53.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -13.5 · closed MIA -8.5 · moved 5 toward CALmodel MIA -11

model MIA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 56% (44 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13.5

CloseMIA -8.5

Total55.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as an 8.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 39–38; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 77 points went over 53.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 8.2; 58.3 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & total	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-5	16–29	L	U56.5
Loose	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Loose	UGA @ AUB 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-14	27–20	L	O45.5
Loose	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar total	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Loose	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Loose	OU @ NEB 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings	-10.5	49–14	W	U65.5
Loose	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7	21–38	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WW–WL	3-1	75%	2-0	3-1
CAL LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OO–OO	4-0	100%	5-0
CAL UUUU	0-4	0%	3-1

Went over in Q4. Of 250 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	7-2 78%
CAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+9.9 →+19.0▲ 9.1#9

CAL+2.0 →+4.7▲ 2.7#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MIA

Longer bar = better

CAL

Offense

◀ MIA better

#90

#15

Defense

Even

#19

+0.8 #24

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+2.0 #3

69 plays #48

Pace

CAL faster ▶

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	49.4 #2	12.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	8.51 #1	4.37 #12	Even
PPA / play	+0.50 #4	−0.03 #21	Even
Success rate	54% #7	37% #31	MIA

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	CAL off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #107	15.0 #17	MIA
Yards / play	5.32 #104	4.42 #16	MIA
PPA / play	+0.12 #80	−0.09 #10	MIA
Success rate	44% #69	35% #15	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	12.0 #9	11.8 #23	23.8 #12	13.2 #3	12.4 #6	25.6 #1
CAL allowed	5.8 #89	1.8 #6	7.5 #16	0.0 #1	5.3 #59	5.3 #10

CAL scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.3 #87	5.0 #119	10.3 #106	6.8 #66	6.0 #86	12.8 #79
MIA allowed	4.4 #54	6.6 #54	11.0 #54	1.2 #6	2.8 #11	4.0 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.