California @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F5 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

California

3-2 · Power #55

final

Final

Pittsburgh

5-0 · Power #57

▲ winner

Closing spread

PITT -3.5

✓ CAL W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

CAL 26–30 PITT

✓ PITT (61%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -3.5

ClosePITT -3.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPITT -3.5

no move

ClosePITT -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open59.5

▼ 3

Close56.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PITT -3.5 · unchangedmodel PITT -6

model PITT -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (143 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPITT -3.5

ClosePITT -3.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PITT as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAL, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PITT won 17–15; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.7 against an average line of 4.2; 52.3 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NCST vs LOU 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6	28–13	W	U57
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	MD vs PUR 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–31	L	O59.5
Very close	WSU vs CAL 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	28–9	W	U52.5
Very close	LIB vs ARMY 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U51.75
Very close	MRSH vs UAB 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	14–21	L	U55.5
Very close	UK vs MIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–38	L	O50.5
Very close	KSU vs TTU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	37–28	W	O56
Very close	FRES vs BOIS 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	37–30	W	O54.5
Very close	TTU vs BAY 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–45	L	O61

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAL LWWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
PITT WLWWW	4-1	80%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: CAL away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAL UUUUO	1-4	20%	3-2
PITT OUOOU	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 53% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PITT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAL 2–4 PITT PITT leads · 6 games since 1955 · PITT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAL+2.0 →+5.0▲ 3.0#48

PITT−0.9 →+6.4▲ 7.3#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CAL

Longer bar = better

PITT

#86

Offense

PITT better ▶

#12

#47

Defense

Even

#58

+1.6 #4

Turnovers

◀ CAL better

+0.8 #27

66 plays #70

Pace

PITT faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	CAL off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #93	25.2 #80	Even
Yards / play	5.65 #85	4.90 #30	PITT
PPA / play	+0.15 #75	+0.11 #79	Even
Success rate	42% #90	39% #43	PITT

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	45.6 #6	18.0 #27	PITT
Yards / play	7.54 #8	4.94 #33	PITT
PPA / play	+0.34 #12	+0.03 #39	PITT
Success rate	49% #22	42% #87	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CAL scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	5.6 #79	6.8 #93	12.4 #92	8.2 #34	5.4 #106	13.6 #67
PITT allowed	7.0 #99	8.0 #80	15.0 #97	8.2 #113	2.0 #5	10.2 #44

PITT scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.2 #18	11.8 #24	22.0 #16	9.0 #22	14.6 #2	23.6 #3
CAL allowed	6.0 #88	2.0 #7	8.0 #21	1.6 #8	8.4 #109	10.0 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.